Tips — Thursday, 15 October 2026

💬 Hapoel turn up in open games more often than not, with 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16. AZ score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. Their games average just over 3 goals between the two sides, even if only 6 of their last 13 got there. AZ are unbeaten at their own ground, but they have tied three of six there and let in more than a goal a game. They have been making plenty of chances without taking them, so the goals should start coming back. Kees Smit, Stije Resink and Jizz Hornkamp are all missing, which thins out their attacking options. Hapoel go for games on the road, where they are 4 wins and 3 losses and let in more than a goal a game. Their away games tend to be open ones. A 2-1 to AZ is the most likely score, and that leaves this one goal short, so we need one of these back lines to leak once more. The caution here is real. Hapoel arrive on four clean sheets in a row, including a 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb, and AZ have scored just two goals in their last four games. AZ also swing between busy games and quiet ones rather than being high scoring every week. We still lean to the goals, because AZ make too many chances to stay this blunt.

💬 Goals look hard to come by in this one. Celje have scored twice in their last five games, a run that includes a 0-0 away at Mura and a 0-1 home loss to Koper. They score just over a goal a game, and at their own ground they let in less than a goal a game. Only 7 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. Omonia are the better side, and they are built to keep things quiet. They let in less than a goal a game both at home and on the road, and they started this competition by beating Celta Vigo 1-0. They have won 9, tied 4 and lost 3 of their last 16 games, with four wins and a tie in their last five. Only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Omonia are also without Carel Eiting, Fotis Kitsos and Moses Odubajo, so their attack has less help. They should be happy to control this one and win it with a single moment. A 0-1 away win is the most likely score, which is exactly the night we are backing. The way this goes wrong is an early Celje goal. The home side are 3 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses at their own ground, so they can stay in this. A goal would force Omonia out of their careful shape. We still expect a quiet night in Celje.

💬 Goals keep showing up in these teams' games, and that is the pull here. Leverkusen let in 2 goals a game across their six away games, a run that includes a 2-3 loss at Elversberg and a 4-3 win at Mainz. They also bring their first choice front three, with Schick, Terrier and Diaby all set to start. Lech have been strong at their own ground, with 7 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss in nine games there, scoring more than 2 goals a game. 14 of Lech's last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them, and 8 of Leverkusen's last 12 did too. Lech should start fast and get on the scoresheet, but they are missing five players and Murawski is suspended after a red card. Their only game against a side from one of Europe's biggest leagues ended 0-4 at Crystal Palace. A 1-2 Leverkusen win is the likeliest finish, which is a close call for this bet rather than a comfortable one. We want this game to stay busy to the end, and a fourth goal is well within reach the way Leverkusen defend on the road. The honest warning is Lech's scoring record. It is lifted by 7-0 and 5-0 wins over weak teams in qualifying, so they may not create much against a Bundesliga defense. We still want the busier game.

💬 Lyon at their own ground are the reason to back goals. They score more than 2 goals a game across seven home games, and they also let in more than a goal a game there. Palace arrive in poor shape up front. They have scored less than a goal a game in their six away games, winning only one of them. Mateta is out with a hamstring injury, and Riad, Tomiyasu, Chilwell and Henderson are all unavailable for the trip. Palace have had four days since their last game to Lyon's six, so tired legs are a worry for them late on. Even with all that, both teams keep playing in open games. 11 of Palace's last 15 had 3 or more goals in them, and 10 of Lyon's last 14 did too. Palace have also been giving up chances at a heavy rate over their last three games. A 2-1 Lyon win is the likeliest finish, with Lyon leading and then living through a nervous end. We want this game to get at least that busy, and the way Palace defend, there is room for a fourth. The risk sits with Lyon's own missing man. Openda has a fractured fibula and is out for at least a month, so if his stand in cannot finish, this turns into a 1-0 or 1-1. The one previous meeting between these clubs was a tight Palace win with 2 goals in it. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Salzburg have not lost in fifteen games, and that run is the heart of this pick. At the Red Bull Arena they have won all six, letting in just 2 goals in those games. They have gone quiet in front of goal lately though. Their last game was a 0-0 at Grazer AK, and they have tied four of those fifteen. Milan arrive in the wrong shape to punish that. They barely score, just over a goal a game, and they have won 6, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 16. Only 3 of those 16 games had 4 or more goals in them, and Milan have won by 2 or more goals just twice. Heavy rotation is expected too, with young Camarda leading the line and Gabbia and Saelemaekers out. Salzburg have had five days since their last game to Milan's four. All of that points to a close, careful night with few clear chances. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and Salzburg staying unbeaten is what this pick is about. The worry is the Salzburg team sheet. Six players are out and four more are doubtful, with Drexler and Morgalla ill, so the hosts are not at full strength either. Milan also won one of the last two meetings between them and tied the other. We are still happy to back Salzburg to stand up to them.

💬 Lillestrom games do not turn into goal fests. Only 4 of their last 17 had 4 or more goals in them, and their games average almost 3 goals in total. Sparta are in good form with five wins in a row, but they are not steamrolling teams at their own ground. They let in a goal a game across six home games at Letna, a run that includes a 0-3 loss to Slavia Praha. Their scoring record is also flattered by easy nights, with 5-0 and 4-0 wins over weaker Czech sides in the mix. Sparta are missing seven players, with Karabec the biggest loss, so a smooth high scoring performance is a lot to ask. Lillestrom are awkward travellers too. They have 4 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses in nine away games, which beats their home record of 3 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses. That points to a visiting side who keep the game tight rather than one who gets picked apart. A 2-1 Sparta win is the likeliest finish, and that is exactly the kind of controlled game we want. The warning here is real. Lillestrom have been giving up chances at a heavy rate in their last three games, and Sparta opened the league phase by winning 4-1 at Ararat-Armenia. If the Sparta attack clicks early this gets away from us. The low scoring read is still the one we trust.

💬 Neither side scores enough to make this a busy night. Sunderland are the bigger name, but only 7 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them, and 12 of 17 finished under 4 goals. They score just over a goal a game. Their squad is thin for this trip as well. Brobbey, Ballard, Diarra and Mundle are injured, Meunier is a doubt, and Talbi, Ta Bi, Ellborg, Browne and Alese were all left out of the Europa League squad. Torreense are low scoring but hard to break down. They score just over a goal a game, let in more than a goal a game, and have tied 5 of their last 16. They also showed they can compete by winning 2-1 away at Lillestrom in the first round of games. This one is played in Leiria, not at Torreense's own ground, so neither team gets a crowd behind them. That usually means a cautious game with both sides happy to keep it level for long spells. A 1-1 looks the most likely finish, and that is well inside what this bet needs. The risk is the gap in individual quality. Sunderland still have Premier League players, and if two or three of them click early the game can open up. Even so, Sunderland have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 17 games, so the quiet game is the one we want.

💬 These two play in busy games. Benfica's games have almost 4 goals in them on average, and 14 of their last 17 had 3 or more. For Celtic it is 12 of their last 16. Benfica are a force at the Luz. They score just over 3 goals a game across their last eight there and have not lost at home in that run, winning six and tying two. They also won 2-0 away at AC Milan in their first league phase game, so they are playing well. Celtic are the reason this should be open. They let in more than a goal a game away from home. In Europe they have been beaten 1-5 at LASK and 1-3 at home by Ferencváros. Cameron Carter-Vickers and Alistair Johnston are both out, so a patched up back line has to handle Pavlidis and Schjelderup. Celtic will not just sit in either. They score more than 2 goals a game on the road and have won six of their last eight away. A 3-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that clears this one. The warning is that the only two meetings between these clubs came in 2012 and produced three goals between them. Benfica are also without Jakub Kamiński, who scored in their first league phase game. We still want the goals here.

💬 Bournemouth do not win games by big margins. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 15 games, and four of their last seven at home ended in ties. That is the case for backing Sturm Graz with a big head start. Bournemouth are the better side, and nobody is pretending otherwise. They have lost once in their last seven at home and let in a goal a game there. They are also missing a lot of their attack, with Justin Kluivert, Amine Adli, Eli Junior Kroupi and Alex Scott all out. A Premier League game follows this one, so changes are likely. Sturm Graz are hard to break down. They let in under a goal a game and drew 0-0 with Rennes in their first league phase game. They have won 8 of their last 15. Their away scoring, more than a goal a game, has all come against Austrian teams, so it means little at this level. They will sit in and make the night awkward. A 2-0 Bournemouth win looks the most likely result, and the away side's head start survives that. The worry is the Sturm team news. Otar Kiteishvili is one of seven players ruled out, and a side that short can get picked apart late on. We still think the winning margin stays small.

💬 Juventus come to Vigo without most of their attack. Kenan Yildiz has a broken foot, and Khephren Thuram, Manuel Locatelli, Jeremie Boga and Jeff Ekhator are all out as well. A Juventus side missing that much has already tied 1-1 with Milan and 1-1 at Cagliari. Celta are built to keep games close. They have tied six of their last fifteen, with 0-0s against Elche, Real Sociedad and Valencia. They score just over a goal a game and let in under one. Better still for this pick, they have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 15 games. They do not get run over at home. Juventus have been quiet on the road. They have managed just over a goal a game across their last six away trips, and only 3 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. They lost 2-3 at Sassuolo too, so they are not watertight at the back. A 1-1 looks the most likely result, and a tie is enough for this one. Now the honest side. Juventus top the league phase table after beating NEC Nijmegen 5-0, and Celta are 25th after losing at Omonia Nicosia. Celta have also not scored in five of their last nine games. If they blank again, one Juventus moment wins it. We still like Celta to stay in this.

💬 Dinamo Zagreb are a different team at Maksimir. They have not been beaten in their last eight at home, winning seven and tying one. They score almost 3 goals a game there and let in under one. Anderlecht arrive with their back line in pieces. Killian Sardella, Ilay Camara, Lucas Hey and Giulian Biancone are all out, and defending has been the best part of their away form. That is a lot of patching up against a home side in this mood. Anderlecht are no pushovers. They have won 10 of their last 15 and let in under a goal a game. The catch is at the other end. They score just over a goal a game on the road, so they need this to stay tight to get anything from it. Dinamo's recent home nights have been busy. They beat Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-2, Gorica 1-0 and Varazdin 3-1. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. There is a real catch here. Dinamo away from Maksimir have been poor, losing 1-2 at Hajduk Split, 2-4 at Osijek and 1-3 at Viking. The whole case rests on the home run holding up. Anderlecht are organised enough to take something on the counter. We are still with Dinamo at home.

💬 Ferencváros have lost once in their last eighteen games. That is the starting point here, and Plzeň are not the side to end that run. Ferencváros have also been unbeaten in their last seven at the Groupama Aréna, where they let in under a goal a game. Their European nights at home have been even better, with Trabzonspor beaten 4-0 there in qualifying. Plzeň are struggling. They have won two of their last six and lost three, including 1-2 at Slavia Praha and 2-3 to Sigma Olomouc. They were also beaten 0-3 at home by Union Saint-Gilloise in their first league phase game. Away from home they have lost three of their last six and let in more than 2 goals a game. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 15. Plzeň do carry a threat going forward. They score 2 goals a game and 12 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so a quiet night is unlikely. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. The honest worry is how often Ferencváros let visitors hang around at home. They have tied three of their last five, including 1-1 with Debreceni VSC, and Plzeň have won two of the last five meetings. We still back Ferencváros to get it done.

💬 Beşiktaş travel to Sinsheim without Dušan Vlahović, Milot Rashica and Václav Černý. That is most of a front line that only manages just over a goal a game on the road anyway. Hoffenheim defend badly, but they keep scoring at home. They have scored exactly two goals in each of their last three home league games, 2-3 against Hamburger SV, 2-1 against VfB Stuttgart and 2-3 against Borussia Dortmund. They let in 2 goals a game, and 12 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Beşiktaş are the better team on paper. They have won 11 of their last 15 and let in under a goal a game. The catch is where those numbers come from. Beşiktaş score more than 2 a game at home in Turkey, and far less than that when they travel. Take three forwards out of that side and the away attack looks thin. Expect an open, untidy night with chances at both ends. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. The risk is clear. Hoffenheim have lost five of their last six and sit 29th of 36 teams in the league phase table. If one of the replacement forwards takes his chance, this home defense will not stop him. We still want Hoffenheim here.

💬 Jagiellonia are not a side who win games by a distance. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games, and they have lost their last four in a row. Two of those were 1-3 home defeats, to Gornik Zabrze and to Legia Warszawa. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Five Jagiellonia players are listed as unavailable, which does not help a back line that is already leaking. Ararat-Armenia travel with a solid record of their own. They have won 10, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 18 games, and they have lost by 2 or more goals in just 2 of those. On the road they are weaker, at 3 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses, and there they let in close to 2 a game. Neither club has a point yet, so both have to go for this one. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that keeps the away side inside the margin we want. The honest worry is where Ararat-Armenia's numbers come from. Most of their games are against Armenian league teams, and the one time they met a strong European side they lost 1-4 at home to Sparta Praha. Jagiellonia are still too open to pull clear of anyone, so we want Ararat-Armenia to stay close.

💬 Olympiakos are the hardest team to beat in this game. They have lost just 2 of their last 14 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals once in that run. They let in less than a goal a game and have won four of their last five. Their games have been quiet too, averaging under 2 goals in total. Marseille are a better team at their own ground, where they are 4 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses and score 2 goals a game. Their last 16 games read 6 wins, 1 tie and 9 losses, and in the last four their opponents have created far more than they have. Marseille are also missing Hojbjerg with a muscle problem, Cornelius with a hip problem, and Kamissoko. The four past meetings between these clubs produced under 2 goals a game, and only one of them reached 3 goals. That fits what both teams look like now, and a 1-1 is the most likely score. A tie keeps this pick in good shape. The warning comes up front. Olympiakos have lost Ayoub El Kaabi for the season with a broken leg, so their attack has no first-choice finisher. Marseille score 2 a game at their own ground and can win this late. We still think Olympiakos are solid enough to come away with something here.

💬 NEC have the softest defense in this tie. They let in 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 13 games. Their last 13 games read 3 wins, 4 ties and 6 losses, and they have not won any of their last five. At their own ground they are 1 win, 2 ties and 3 losses. Bram Nuytinck is out with an ankle problem until late November, and Pepijn Sandler and Emre Mor are missing too, so the back line stays patched up. Levski have been the steadier team all season. They have won 13, tied 3 and lost 3 of their last 19 games. They score almost 2 goals a game and they let in less than a goal a game. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of those 19. NEC hand out chances, and 10 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals, so Levski will get looks at goal. A 1-2 away win is the most likely score, and that is a clean result for this pick. The real risk is Levski in Europe. They have not scored in three European games this season, including a 0-4 loss at AEK Athens, and that is a long dry run. If it carries on, a narrow NEC win is live. We still trust Levski to keep this close or better.

💬 Rennes play in busy games. 10 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 3 goals between the two teams. They are unbeaten at their own ground at 5 wins, 1 tie and no losses, and there they score more than 2 a game. They also let in more than a goal a game at home, and they lost 0-4 at Lyon in their recent run. This is not a team that keeps things quiet, and they have just put four past Auxerre. OFI do not just sit back and defend either. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. 10 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. On the road they let in more than a goal a game, and they have won three of their last five. The honest part is the likely score. A 2-1 to Rennes is the single most likely result, and that leaves this one goal short of where we want it. Both back lines give up enough for a fourth goal to turn up. The risk is OFI going the other way. They have created very little lately and they are missing the attackers Aaron Iseka and Christos Sielis, so a low-key 1-0 or 2-0 is possible. We still want the busier game here.