Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan — Tips & Analysis

Red Bull Salzburg +0.5: Salzburg have not lost in fifteen games, and that run is the heart of this pick. At the Red Bull Arena they have won all six, letting in just 2 goals in those games. They have gone quiet in front of goal lately though. Their last game was a 0-0 at Grazer AK, and they have tied four of those fifteen. Milan arrive in the wrong shape to punish that. They barely score, just over a goal a game, and they have won 6, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 16. Only 3 of those 16 games had 4 or more goals in them, and Milan have won by 2 or more goals just twice. Heavy rotation is expected too, with young Camarda leading the line and Gabbia and Saelemaekers out. Salzburg have had five days since their last game to Milan's four. All of that points to a close, careful night with few clear chances. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and Salzburg staying unbeaten is what this pick is about. The worry is the Salzburg team sheet. Six players are out and four more are doubtful, with Drexler and Morgalla ill, so the hosts are not at full strength either. Milan also won one of the last two meetings between them and tied the other. We are still happy to back Salzburg to stand up to them.