1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş — Tips & Analysis

1899 Hoffenheim -0.25: Beşiktaş travel to Sinsheim without Dušan Vlahović, Milot Rashica and Václav Černý. That is most of a front line that only manages just over a goal a game on the road anyway. Hoffenheim defend badly, but they keep scoring at home. They have scored exactly two goals in each of their last three home league games, 2-3 against Hamburger SV, 2-1 against VfB Stuttgart and 2-3 against Borussia Dortmund. They let in 2 goals a game, and 12 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Beşiktaş are the better team on paper. They have won 11 of their last 15 and let in under a goal a game. The catch is where those numbers come from. Beşiktaş score more than 2 a game at home in Turkey, and far less than that when they travel. Take three forwards out of that side and the away attack looks thin. Expect an open, untidy night with chances at both ends. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. The risk is clear. Hoffenheim have lost five of their last six and sit 29th of 36 teams in the league phase table. If one of the replacement forwards takes his chance, this home defense will not stop him. We still want Hoffenheim here.