NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia — Tips & Analysis

Levski Sofia +0.75: NEC have the softest defense in this tie. They let in 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 13 games. Their last 13 games read 3 wins, 4 ties and 6 losses, and they have not won any of their last five. At their own ground they are 1 win, 2 ties and 3 losses. Bram Nuytinck is out with an ankle problem until late November, and Pepijn Sandler and Emre Mor are missing too, so the back line stays patched up. Levski have been the steadier team all season. They have won 13, tied 3 and lost 3 of their last 19 games. They score almost 2 goals a game and they let in less than a goal a game. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of those 19. NEC hand out chances, and 10 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals, so Levski will get looks at goal. A 1-2 away win is the most likely score, and that is a clean result for this pick. The real risk is Levski in Europe. They have not scored in three European games this season, including a 0-4 loss at AEK Athens, and that is a long dry run. If it carries on, a narrow NEC win is live. We still trust Levski to keep this close or better.