Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: Lillestrom games do not turn into goal fests. Only 4 of their last 17 had 4 or more goals in them, and their games average almost 3 goals in total. Sparta are in good form with five wins in a row, but they are not steamrolling teams at their own ground. They let in a goal a game across six home games at Letna, a run that includes a 0-3 loss to Slavia Praha. Their scoring record is also flattered by easy nights, with 5-0 and 4-0 wins over weaker Czech sides in the mix. Sparta are missing seven players, with Karabec the biggest loss, so a smooth high scoring performance is a lot to ask. Lillestrom are awkward travellers too. They have 4 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses in nine away games, which beats their home record of 3 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses. That points to a visiting side who keep the game tight rather than one who gets picked apart. A 2-1 Sparta win is the likeliest finish, and that is exactly the kind of controlled game we want. The warning here is real. Lillestrom have been giving up chances at a heavy rate in their last three games, and Sparta opened the league phase by winning 4-1 at Ararat-Armenia. If the Sparta attack clicks early this gets away from us. The low scoring read is still the one we trust.