Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia — Tips & Analysis

Ararat-Armenia +1.5: Jagiellonia are not a side who win games by a distance. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games, and they have lost their last four in a row. Two of those were 1-3 home defeats, to Gornik Zabrze and to Legia Warszawa. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Five Jagiellonia players are listed as unavailable, which does not help a back line that is already leaking. Ararat-Armenia travel with a solid record of their own. They have won 10, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 18 games, and they have lost by 2 or more goals in just 2 of those. On the road they are weaker, at 3 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses, and there they let in close to 2 a game. Neither club has a point yet, so both have to go for this one. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that keeps the away side inside the margin we want. The honest worry is where Ararat-Armenia's numbers come from. Most of their games are against Armenian league teams, and the one time they met a strong European side they lost 1-4 at home to Sparta Praha. Jagiellonia are still too open to pull clear of anyone, so we want Ararat-Armenia to stay close.