Benfica vs Celtic — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: These two play in busy games. Benfica's games have almost 4 goals in them on average, and 14 of their last 17 had 3 or more. For Celtic it is 12 of their last 16. Benfica are a force at the Luz. They score just over 3 goals a game across their last eight there and have not lost at home in that run, winning six and tying two. They also won 2-0 away at AC Milan in their first league phase game, so they are playing well. Celtic are the reason this should be open. They let in more than a goal a game away from home. In Europe they have been beaten 1-5 at LASK and 1-3 at home by Ferencváros. Cameron Carter-Vickers and Alistair Johnston are both out, so a patched up back line has to handle Pavlidis and Schjelderup. Celtic will not just sit in either. They score more than 2 goals a game on the road and have won six of their last eight away. A 3-1 home win looks the most likely result, and that clears this one. The warning is that the only two meetings between these clubs came in 2012 and produced three goals between them. Benfica are also without Jakub Kamiński, who scored in their first league phase game. We still want the goals here.