Tips — Sunday, 27 September 2026

💬 Valladolid barely score. They have managed less than a goal a game across their last 15, and they arrive with six players unavailable. Alex Balboa is suspended, Dani Perez and Thiago Ojeda are injured, and two more are away with their countries. A team that blunt, missing that many, does not suddenly start trading goals. Valladolid have won 3, tied 3 and lost 9 of their last 15, and their games have almost 2 goals in them on average. Only 3 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals. Cordoba are the side with the threat, but they are all over the place on the road. They have won three and lost three of their six away trips. Valladolid have been steadier at Zorrilla, letting in under a goal a game across six home games, so they can hang around in a night like this. Expect them to sit deep and survive for long spells. A 0-1 Cordoba win is the most likely ending, and one goal deciding it is exactly the kind of game we want. The warning is real, though. Cordoba's own games have 3 goals in them on average, and 9 of their last 14 had 3 or more. The last 6 meetings between these two averaged almost 3 goals as well. We still think this one stays quiet.

💬 Neither of these teams can find the net. Lithuania score less than a goal a game and Azerbaijan are no better, so it is hard to see where a pile of goals comes from. Lithuania have won 1, tied 4 and lost 11 of their last 16 games, which tells you how little they create. They did open this group with a 2-0 win in Liechtenstein, and that has them top of the three team table on 3 points. Azerbaijan travel badly. They have lost all six of their recorded away trips and barely scored in them. They did warm up this week with a 1-0 friendly win over Tajikistan, so they arrive with a game in their legs. The one time these two met, back in March 2019, it finished 0-0. That fits what both sides are: slow, careful and short of quality in the final third. A 1-0 Lithuania win is the most likely ending, and a single goal deciding it is what this pick needs. The risk sits with Azerbaijan's defending. They let in more than 2 goals a game, their games carry just over 3 goals on average, and 8 of their last 13 had 3 or more. If Lithuania score early and Azerbaijan have to chase, this can get loose fast. We still expect a quiet night in Kaunas.

💬 Almeria do not score on the road. They have managed less than a goal a game across seven away trips and won only one of them. That is a poor fit against a side that has not been beaten at home all season. Mallorca have won 8, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 16 games and let in under a goal a game. At Son Moix they are 6W-2D-0L in eight, letting in well under a goal a game there. Almeria are still a good team. They sit in the top five with Mallorca and there is barely a point between them. Their away record is built on defending, though. They let in under a goal a game on their travels and tied three of those seven trips. They are also without Stefan Dzodic, Brian Cipenga and Gui Guedes, and Rodrigo Ely is a big doubt with an ankle problem. The history backs a quiet game. The last 12 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and only 7 of Mallorca's last 16 games had 3 or more. A 1-0 Mallorca win is the most likely ending, and that leaves this pick clear. The risk is Mallorca's scoring at home. They score more than 2 goals a game there, so one early goal can open this up. Almeria also arrive on three straight wins, so they may not sit as deep as expected. We still want the tight game here.

💬 Qatar have stopped scoring. They have managed less than a goal a game across their last 11, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of them. A team that cannot put games away does not produce high-scoring nights. Qatar have won 3, tied 3 and lost 5 of those 11, and their games carry more than 2 goals in total on average. They did beat Bahrain 2-0 to open this tournament, so they are the better side here, but they win small. Yemen are the ones who have to survive. They have won 6, tied 5 and lost 6 of their last 17, and they let in more than a goal a game. Their scoring record looks healthy, but it is padded by big wins over Brunei and Bhutan. Against a real team they lost 0-4 to UAE on matchday one. This one is in Jeddah on neutral ground, so neither side is hosting. Both squads played 3 days ago, and Yemen know defeat probably ends their tournament. Expect them to sit deep and make it ugly. A 0-1 Qatar win is the most likely ending, and that is a comfortable night for this pick. The one worry is history. The only two meetings between them were 0-6 and 0-4 Qatar wins. Those came in 2017 and 2019 when Qatar were Asian champions, and this Qatar side does not win big any more. We are happy with the low-scoring read.

💬 The Netherlands keep making hard work of these nights, and that is why we like Serbia to stay close. The Dutch have not lost in 16 games, but 8 of those 16 were ties. Three of their last five ended level, including a 1-1 with Germany on 24 September. They are also missing four first choice players in Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt, Jerdy Schouten and Xavi Simons. Serbia sit bottom of the group with no points after a 1-2 loss to Greece. They score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game. Their last 15 games brought 6 wins, 4 ties and 5 losses, and they lost by 2 or more goals only 3 times. Dutch quality should still show. They score almost 3 goals a game, but they have been scoring more than the chances they make deserve. Both teams played three days ago, so legs will be heavy and changes are likely. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest shape, with Serbia on the scoresheet and beaten by a single goal. The danger is the Dutch top gear. They have won by 2 or more in 7 of those 16 games, including wins by four goals and by eight. Serbia have also been pulled apart by the best attacking teams, losing 0-5 and 0-2 to England in their last two meetings. We still expect Serbia to make a contest of this.

💬 Goals follow both of these teams around. 10 of Denmark's last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them, and that is the heart of this pick. Denmark score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so their nights rarely stay quiet. Their games carry just over 3 goals in total on average. They also let in three away at Norway on matchday one, which is a fresh sign their defending is loose right now. Wales are the same shape. They score more than 2 goals a game and their games also carry just over 3 goals. Wales are short handed, though, with seven players out including Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon and Rubin Colwill. That thins their defending as much as their attack. Both sides lost their openers and sit bottom of the group, so both need a result and neither can sit back. The three previous meetings averaged 3 goals and Denmark won all of them. A 2-1 Denmark win is the most likely ending, and that gets this one home. The caution is that both scoring records are flattered by one-sided nights, a 6-0 over Belarus and a 7-1 over FYR Macedonia. Wales also travel tight, letting in just over a goal a game across eight away trips, and Denmark let in under a goal a game at Parken. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Kosovo do not get beaten heavily. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, and that is the heart of this pick. Austria are not built to change that right now. They are missing David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer and Florian Grillitsch, and Marko Arnautovic has retired. Austria have won 8, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 16, but they have won by 2 or more in only 5 of them. They score more than 2 goals a game, though a 10-0 win over San Marino does most of that work. They were also comfortably outplayed at the World Cup. Kosovo are in good form. They have won 11 of their last 16 and are 6W-0D-2L on the road, scoring 2 goals a game away from home. They let in under a goal a game and opened this group by beating Ireland 1-0. Both sides won on matchday one and sit level at the top, so neither will throw caution to the wind early. A 1-1 is the most likely ending, and Kosovo staying close is exactly what this pick needs. The worry is Vienna. Austria are unbeaten at home in eight games, 5W-3D-0L, and they let in under a goal a game there. Both squads also played 3 days ago, so tired legs and changed teams are possible. We still think Kosovo hold their own.

💬 Andorra have not won any of their last nine games, and that is the strongest reason we are on Gibraltar here. Andorra have won 0, tied 1 and lost 8 of those nine. They barely score, they let in 2 goals a game, and it gets worse on the road. They also lost 1-2 to Malta three days ago, so tired legs are a fair worry. Gibraltar's own record looks grim with 1 win, 3 ties and 10 losses in their last 14. Look at who they played though. They lost 0-7 and 0-3 to Croatia and 0-6 and 0-4 to Czechia, and Montenegro and Latvia are a level above this one too. Against teams of Andorra's standard Gibraltar are a different side. They have not lost to Andorra in the last three meetings and won the last two 1-0. Those three games produced under a goal a game between them, so nobody should expect a flood. Expect the same again, a nervy and scrappy night with few clear chances, decided by one moment. A 1-0 Gibraltar win is the most likely score. The catch is real. Gibraltar have not played a competitive game in 180 days, so nobody knows how ready they are. Andorra already have a match in their legs, and a slow Gibraltar start could cost them. Gibraltar are still the better side here and we are happy to back them.

💬 Eldense have a real hold on this matchup, and that is the case for backing them. They have won three of the last five meetings, and two of those wins came at Burgos. The other thing in our favour is how Burgos win. They are unbeaten in their last seven home games, with 4 wins and 3 ties. Even so, they have won by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 15. They score just over a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. This is a team that grinds out 1-0s, not one that runs anybody over. Burgos are also missing Lizancos and Sergio through injury, plus two players away on call ups. Eldense arrive with no injuries and no doubts. Their away form is the poor part. They have 2 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses on the road and have scored one goal in three away league games this season. These games are always tight. The last five meetings produced under 2 goals a game between them. Our honest read is a 1-0 Burgos win, which is not the result this pick wants. It needs Eldense to come away with something, a tie or better, and their record in this matchup says they can do it. Burgos at home are hard to beat, so there is a clear hurdle here. We are taking Eldense because they keep turning up in this game.

💬 Eibar have been scoring more than the chances they make deserve, and that is the main reason we want few goals here. Over their last four games they created less than they scored, so the five game winning run flatters them a little. Eibar's real strength is at the back. They let in under a goal a game and have 10 wins from their last 15. They have won by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15, and those margins should shrink. Las Palmas could hurt this pick, but they are in no shape to. They score just over a goal a game and arrive with six players hurt, including Sergio Ruiz and Marvin. There is no natural left back left in the squad. A patched up team chasing a game late does not create much. The last 12 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, and less than half of them were high scoring. A grinding 1-0 Eibar win is the likeliest result, and one goal is nowhere near enough to hurt us. The risk is that Eibar keep finishing well. They score 2 goals a game at home, and 10 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. Las Palmas let in almost 2 goals a game on the road, including a 2-5 loss at Girona. Even so, the missing players and the tight history of this matchup keep us on a low scoring night.

💬 The case here is simple. UAE do not win big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, and they tied 7 of them. Bahrain are the weaker team and everyone knows it. They have won 4 and lost 8 of their last 12, they score less than a goal a game, and Qatar beat them 0-2 on 24 September. UAE arrive in better shape after a 4-0 win over Yemen to open the tournament. Even so, they score just over a goal a game and let in the same. That is not a team that runs away with games. This one is in Jeddah on neutral ground, so neither side is hosting and no crowd lifts either team. These two also know each other well. Bahrain have won 2, tied 2 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings, and those games averaged under 3 goals in total. Both squads have had 3 days since their last game, which points to a slow, careful night rather than an open one. A 0-1 UAE win is the most likely ending. That is too close for comfort, so Bahrain have to keep it tight and take something from the game. The worry is clear. Bahrain have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 12, and the 4-0 shows UAE can punish a poor start. We still think this one stays close.

💬 Germany are missing their two best attacking players. Jamal Musiala has a thigh muscle tear and Kai Havertz has a hamstring strain. That makes the German attack weaker than their scoring record suggests. Greece have no fresh injury worries at all and can pick from a full squad. Germany have won 8, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 16 games. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of those 16, and the big scores came against weaker teams like Curacao, Slovakia and Luxembourg. Greece travel well. They have won five of their last eight away games and let in a goal a game on the road. They have won 8 of their last 14 overall. The table matters here too. Greece top the group on 3 points. Germany have 1 point after Cody Gakpo's late equaliser in Amsterdam. So Germany must chase the game, and that gives Greece room to sit deep and hit back. A 2-1 Germany win is the most likely ending, and that is exactly the kind of night this pick wants. The risk is that Germany click early and the game gets away from Greece. Germany have beaten them in both of the last 2 meetings, and Greece have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 14. We think Greece stay in this one to the end.

💬 Norway games are busy. 13 of their last 14 have had 3 or more goals, and every one of their last ten produced at least three. That habit is hard to ignore. Norway score just over 3 goals a game and have won 12 of their last 14, with Haaland scoring twice in the 3-2 win over Denmark. They also never tie. Not one of those 14 games finished level, so someone always pushes for a winner. Portugal will not sit back either. They score more than 2 goals a game and 9 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Both teams won their openers and this game shapes the group, so neither can play for a point. Here is the honest part. A 2-1 Norway win is the most likely single score, and that leaves us just short. We need one more goal, and this game offers plenty of ways to find it, with Portugal chasing late the clearest of them. The risks are real. Norway are without Alexander Sorloth, and their biggest scores came against weaker teams like Israel, Estonia and Iraq. Portugal let in only a goal a game and are the better organised side, a long way from the defences Norway put those big scores past. Norway have also been scoring more than their chances deserve. We still want the busy game here.

💬 Ireland do not get beaten heavily. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games, and that is the heart of this pick. Israel are not the team to break that pattern. They have won 5, tied 1 and lost 9 of their last 15. They let in more than 2 goals a game and they lost 1-3 in Austria in their opener. Israel have also lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 15, so they are just as likely to be chasing as leading. Ireland lost 0-1 in Kosovo, but the two away games before that were a 3-2 win in Hungary and a 2-2 tie in Czechia. They score just over a goal a game and they know how to protect a result. This one is played in Debrecen, so there is no real crowd behind Israel. Ireland will sit deep, play direct and try to make it ugly. A 1-1 is the most likely ending, and Ireland avoiding defeat is what this pick needs. The team sheet is the worry. Captain Nathan Collins is out with a calf problem, Evan Ferguson and Josh Cullen are out too, and five more players carry knocks. The build up has been unsettled as well, with the squad only confirming the day before the game that they would play. We still back Ireland to come away unbeaten.

💬 This derby has been dull for years, and nothing about these two teams says that changes tonight. The last 16 meetings averaged fewer than 2 goals a game, and only 3 of those 16 had 3 or more goals. Oviedo simply cannot score. They have not scored in any of their three home league games this season, losing 0-1 to Leganes and tying 0-0 with both Burgos and Granada. They score less than a goal a game overall, and they are missing Nacho Vidal, Carlos Fernandez and Ilyas Chaira. Gijon are the better team here, but they are no goal machine. They score more than a goal a game, they let in a goal a game, and they win tight games rather than shootouts. Derbies like this one are foul heavy, with plenty of stoppages and very few clean chances. Both sides have had at least a week since their last game, so legs are fresh and shape should hold. A 0-0 is the single most likely ending, and that is about as good as it gets for this pick. Gijon are the risk. 8 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so they can turn a quiet night loud in ten minutes. Oviedo have also been making better chances than their scoring shows. We are happy to back the quiet game.

💬 Miami cannot stop tying games. Four of their last five league games finished level, and both teams scored in every one of them: 2-2, 2-2, 1-1 and 2-2. Columbus are solid on their own ground. They have won 7, tied 1 and lost 4 there, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in just over one. They have also had 8 days since their last game, so they should be fresh. Miami score more than 2 goals a game, but they let in 2 a game, and that back line is stretched thin. Nine players are listed out, six of them away on international duty, including Segovia and Allende. The international window bites both ways though. Columbus lose Abou Ali to a knee injury and Hagen, Moreira and Tapia to their countries, with three more doubtful. Two patched up teams who both leak goals usually means an open, even night rather than a clean win for either. Miami have also been scoring more than their chances deserve, so these two are closer than the table says. A 2-2 is the most likely ending, and Columbus avoiding defeat is what this pick needs. History is the worry. Miami have won 7 of the last 12 meetings, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 20 games. We still think Columbus hold them here.