Mallorca vs Almeria — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Almeria do not score on the road. They have managed less than a goal a game across seven away trips and won only one of them. That is a poor fit against a side that has not been beaten at home all season. Mallorca have won 8, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 16 games and let in under a goal a game. At Son Moix they are 6W-2D-0L in eight, letting in well under a goal a game there. Almeria are still a good team. They sit in the top five with Mallorca and there is barely a point between them. Their away record is built on defending, though. They let in under a goal a game on their travels and tied three of those seven trips. They are also without Stefan Dzodic, Brian Cipenga and Gui Guedes, and Rodrigo Ely is a big doubt with an ankle problem. The history backs a quiet game. The last 12 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and only 7 of Mallorca's last 16 games had 3 or more. A 1-0 Mallorca win is the most likely ending, and that leaves this pick clear. The risk is Mallorca's scoring at home. They score more than 2 goals a game there, so one early goal can open this up. Almeria also arrive on three straight wins, so they may not sit as deep as expected. We still want the tight game here.