Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: This derby has been dull for years, and nothing about these two teams says that changes tonight. The last 16 meetings averaged fewer than 2 goals a game, and only 3 of those 16 had 3 or more goals. Oviedo simply cannot score. They have not scored in any of their three home league games this season, losing 0-1 to Leganes and tying 0-0 with both Burgos and Granada. They score less than a goal a game overall, and they are missing Nacho Vidal, Carlos Fernandez and Ilyas Chaira. Gijon are the better team here, but they are no goal machine. They score more than a goal a game, they let in a goal a game, and they win tight games rather than shootouts. Derbies like this one are foul heavy, with plenty of stoppages and very few clean chances. Both sides have had at least a week since their last game, so legs are fresh and shape should hold. A 0-0 is the single most likely ending, and that is about as good as it gets for this pick. Gijon are the risk. 8 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so they can turn a quiet night loud in ten minutes. Oviedo have also been making better chances than their scoring shows. We are happy to back the quiet game.