Bahrain vs United Arab Emirates — Tips & Analysis

Bahrain +1: The case here is simple. UAE do not win big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, and they tied 7 of them. Bahrain are the weaker team and everyone knows it. They have won 4 and lost 8 of their last 12, they score less than a goal a game, and Qatar beat them 0-2 on 24 September. UAE arrive in better shape after a 4-0 win over Yemen to open the tournament. Even so, they score just over a goal a game and let in the same. That is not a team that runs away with games. This one is in Jeddah on neutral ground, so neither side is hosting and no crowd lifts either team. These two also know each other well. Bahrain have won 2, tied 2 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings, and those games averaged under 3 goals in total. Both squads have had 3 days since their last game, which points to a slow, careful night rather than an open one. A 0-1 UAE win is the most likely ending. That is too close for comfort, so Bahrain have to keep it tight and take something from the game. The worry is clear. Bahrain have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 12, and the 4-0 shows UAE can punish a poor start. We still think this one stays close.