Germany vs Greece — Tips & Analysis

Greece +1.5: Germany are missing their two best attacking players. Jamal Musiala has a thigh muscle tear and Kai Havertz has a hamstring strain. That makes the German attack weaker than their scoring record suggests. Greece have no fresh injury worries at all and can pick from a full squad. Germany have won 8, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 16 games. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of those 16, and the big scores came against weaker teams like Curacao, Slovakia and Luxembourg. Greece travel well. They have won five of their last eight away games and let in a goal a game on the road. They have won 8 of their last 14 overall. The table matters here too. Greece top the group on 3 points. Germany have 1 point after Cody Gakpo's late equaliser in Amsterdam. So Germany must chase the game, and that gives Greece room to sit deep and hit back. A 2-1 Germany win is the most likely ending, and that is exactly the kind of night this pick wants. The risk is that Germany click early and the game gets away from Greece. Germany have beaten them in both of the last 2 meetings, and Greece have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 14. We think Greece stay in this one to the end.