Lithuania vs Azerbaijan — Tips & Analysis

Under 2: Neither of these teams can find the net. Lithuania score less than a goal a game and Azerbaijan are no better, so it is hard to see where a pile of goals comes from. Lithuania have won 1, tied 4 and lost 11 of their last 16 games, which tells you how little they create. They did open this group with a 2-0 win in Liechtenstein, and that has them top of the three team table on 3 points. Azerbaijan travel badly. They have lost all six of their recorded away trips and barely scored in them. They did warm up this week with a 1-0 friendly win over Tajikistan, so they arrive with a game in their legs. The one time these two met, back in March 2019, it finished 0-0. That fits what both sides are: slow, careful and short of quality in the final third. A 1-0 Lithuania win is the most likely ending, and a single goal deciding it is what this pick needs. The risk sits with Azerbaijan's defending. They let in more than 2 goals a game, their games carry just over 3 goals on average, and 8 of their last 13 had 3 or more. If Lithuania score early and Azerbaijan have to chase, this can get loose fast. We still expect a quiet night in Kaunas.