Serbia vs Netherlands — Tips & Analysis

Serbia +1.5: The Netherlands keep making hard work of these nights, and that is why we like Serbia to stay close. The Dutch have not lost in 16 games, but 8 of those 16 were ties. Three of their last five ended level, including a 1-1 with Germany on 24 September. They are also missing four first choice players in Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt, Jerdy Schouten and Xavi Simons. Serbia sit bottom of the group with no points after a 1-2 loss to Greece. They score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game. Their last 15 games brought 6 wins, 4 ties and 5 losses, and they lost by 2 or more goals only 3 times. Dutch quality should still show. They score almost 3 goals a game, but they have been scoring more than the chances they make deserve. Both teams played three days ago, so legs will be heavy and changes are likely. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest shape, with Serbia on the scoresheet and beaten by a single goal. The danger is the Dutch top gear. They have won by 2 or more in 7 of those 16 games, including wins by four goals and by eight. Serbia have also been pulled apart by the best attacking teams, losing 0-5 and 0-2 to England in their last two meetings. We still expect Serbia to make a contest of this.