Denmark vs Wales — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Goals follow both of these teams around. 10 of Denmark's last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them, and that is the heart of this pick. Denmark score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so their nights rarely stay quiet. Their games carry just over 3 goals in total on average. They also let in three away at Norway on matchday one, which is a fresh sign their defending is loose right now. Wales are the same shape. They score more than 2 goals a game and their games also carry just over 3 goals. Wales are short handed, though, with seven players out including Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon and Rubin Colwill. That thins their defending as much as their attack. Both sides lost their openers and sit bottom of the group, so both need a result and neither can sit back. The three previous meetings averaged 3 goals and Denmark won all of them. A 2-1 Denmark win is the most likely ending, and that gets this one home. The caution is that both scoring records are flattered by one-sided nights, a 6-0 over Belarus and a 7-1 over FYR Macedonia. Wales also travel tight, letting in just over a goal a game across eight away trips, and Denmark let in under a goal a game at Parken. We still want the busier game here.