Tips — Saturday, 26 September 2026

💬 These two just do not beat each other. Three of the last four meetings finished level, a 2-2 in March, a 0-0 in January and a 0-0 last October. Across the last 5 meetings China have won one and Thailand have won one. China have built this tournament on not letting goals in. They let in less than a goal a game across their last 13 and have tied six of them, losing only once. They edged Korea DPR 2-1 and have since tied 0-0 with both Iran and the UAE. That is a side who make games small, not one who wins by a distance. Thailand have lost only 2 of their last 12 and they score 2 goals a game. They get Thanakrit Chotmuangpak and Sittha Boonlha back from suspension. China lose a player to a ban. Both teams have had only 3 days of rest before a knockout tie, and a level game after 90 minutes goes to extra time. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is just what Thailand want. The worry is where Thailand's goals have come from. They beat Hong Kong 5-1 and the Kyrgyz Republic 3-2, the bottom two of their group, then lost 0-3 to Japan. China are the more solid team. This matchup keeps producing level games, so we are happy to take the head start.

💬 Pakistan have no attack to speak of, and that is what points to a big Thailand win. Pakistan have won 1, tied 3 and lost 12 of their last 16 games. They score well under a goal a game and let in more than 2 a game. When they meet a decent attacking side they get taken apart, losing 0-5 to Syria, 0-7 to Jordan and 0-3 to Tajikistan. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 16, and have not won by 2 in any of them. They have not played in 179 days either. Thailand are one of the strongest teams in this region. They have won 11 of their last 16 games, and 5 of their last 7 on the road, scoring just over 3 goals a game on those trips. They score more than 2 a game overall and let in under a goal. Thailand have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 16. Once the first goal goes in there is no way back for Pakistan. A 0-4 Thailand win looks the likeliest finish. The caution is Thailand's August, when they lost 0-2 to Vietnam and 1-2 to Singapore. Their U23 players are also away at the Asian Games. Pakistan are far too weak to punish any of that, so we want Thailand by plenty.

💬 Japan have been the best team in this tournament by a distance. They won all three group games 3-0, 7-0 and 2-0, scoring 12 goals without letting in one. Across their last 19 games they have won 17 and let in less than a goal a game. They score almost 3 goals a game and have won by 2 or more in 12 of their last 19. Japan also come in with no injuries and no bans, and all 23 players trained the day before this one. Korea DPR are the toughest test they have faced here. They let in under a goal a game, they beat Iran 4-1 to qualify, and they only lost 1-2 to group winners China. Expect them to sit deep for an hour and make this awkward. Japan have the patience and the bench to break that down, and a 2-0 win looks the likeliest finish. That controlled kind of win is what this pick needs. The honest worry is that Korea DPR hardly ever get beaten badly. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14 games. Japan have a semi final three days later, so minutes may get managed once they are in front. Japan are still a class above, and we back them to win by 2.

💬 Vietnam are the best team in this region, and this one comes down to a gap in quality. They have won 11 of their last 14 games and let in less than a goal a game. More to the point, they have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of those 14. Three of their last eight games finished exactly 2-0. The Philippines are no pushover on paper, with 8 wins in their last 17. But they have not scored in either of their last two games, losing 0-1 to Malaysia and 0-1 to Thailand. They also let in four against Myanmar before that. Vietnam have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these sides and have not lost one. This tournament is played at one site in Indonesia, so it is neutral ground and neither team has a crowd behind it. That suits the better side. A 2-0 Vietnam win looks the likely shape, a goal either side of half time and a clean sheet. That is the pattern they have used all year. The worry is that the Philippines have the bodies to sit deep and stay organised. They have lost by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 17 games, so a narrow Vietnam win is a real danger. We still expect Vietnam to have too much and win by two.

💬 Ceuta are in a bad way, and that is the case for backing the away side. They are bottom of the Segunda with 1 point from 6 games and a goal difference of minus 13. They have scored three goals in six league games and lost four of their last five. Their last five results read one tie and four defeats. Ceuta score under a goal a game and let in almost 2. Their own ground has not helped them either. Two of their three home league games this season ended 0-2, to Celta de Vigo II and Las Palmas. The other was a 1-1 tie. Real Sociedad II are no world beaters, with 3 wins in their last 15 games. But they score more than a goal a game and they travel well going forward. Against a side this low on confidence they should get something out of the afternoon. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, and Real Sociedad II will take that. The risk here is real. Ceuta have not lost to them in two meetings, tying 0-0 in April and winning 3-1 last December. A team desperate for a first win can lift itself for one game. Real Sociedad II were also beaten 5-1 in the cup earlier this month. Ceuta's form is still too poor to trust, so we are with the visitors.

💬 Slovenia have lost their one real goal threat, and that is the heart of this pick. Benjamin Sesko is out with a long term shin problem, and Niko Prelc and Zan Zaletel are missing too. Slovenia score less than a goal a game and have tied 7 of their last 14. That run includes 0-0 results against Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovakia. They have won by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 14 games. Scotland have won 8 of their last 14. On the road they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 1, letting in less than a goal a game. Slovenia have not played a competitive game in 312 days, so they arrive short of rhythm. Scotland won one of the last two meetings between these sides and tied the other. A 0-0 looks the most likely single score. Andy Robertson and John McGinn should give Scotland the better of the ball, but neither side has a striker to finish the job. Scotland have their own problems. They are without Scott McTominay, Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland through injury, plus Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean. Sebastien Pocognoli takes his first game in charge after Steve Clarke resigned, and a new manager can pick a very different team. Scotland also lost two of their last three games. We still back Scotland to come away from Ljubljana unbeaten.

💬 Kenya are a clear level above Eritrea, and they have the back line to make this a one way night. Kenya have won 6 of their last 11 games and let in less than a goal a game. They kept clean sheets in wins over Burundi, Zambia and Morocco. Michael Olunga is back as captain to lead the attack. Eritrea have won 3 and lost 5 of their last 8 games. Their only competitive wins in this run came against Eswatini, and Ethiopia beat them 0-3 twice. They let in more than a goal a game and have lost by 2 or more in 3 of their last 8. Kenya play this at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi with their own crowd behind them. Eritrea have played very little competitive football since returning to the international game, and that lack of match practice should tell late on. A 2-0 Kenya win is the likely shape, a first half breakthrough and a second goal once Eritrea tire. The honest worry is the margin. Kenya have won by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 11 games, so they do not often run away with them. Benni McCarthy's side are already at the 2027 finals as co-hosts, so he may use this to look at new players. We still think the class gap tells and Kenya win by two.

💬 Both of these sides have enough quality up front to find a goal, and neither back line looks strong enough to stop one. South Africa are the shakier of the two. They let in a goal a game and have taken just one win from their last five. Pitso Mosimane is back in charge for the first time, with five uncapped players in a 30 man squad. Mbokazi, Mudau, Mbatha and Makgopa are all injured. A new coach and a patched up defense is not a recipe for a clean sheet. Guinea bring real quality with Serhou Guirassy, Ilaix Moriba and Saidou Sow in camp. They score more than a goal a game away from home, where they have won 4 of their 6 trips. Guinea have had 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 11 games. They have not played a competitive game in 347 days, so loose moments at both ends look likely early on. A 1-1 is the most likely score, both sides landing one punch and neither finding a second. The risk is plain. The two previous meetings between them finished 2-1 and 0-0, so this pairing can be tight. Guinea's long layoff could also mean a slow, cagey opening. We still want the goals at both ends here.

💬 Iraq have the better players and Kuwait are in poor shape, and that is the whole case here. Kuwait have won just 1 of their last 11 games, tying 3 and losing 7. They score less than a goal a game and let in more than one. Saudi Arabia beat them 1-0 three days ago. Iraq have won 8 of their last 17 games. They were held 1-1 by Oman on the opening day, but they carry far more threat than this Kuwait side. The whole Gulf Cup is played in Jeddah, so this is neutral ground and neither team has a crowd behind it. Both sides played three days ago, so tired legs and changes are likely. Kuwait have not beaten Iraq in the last 5 meetings. A 1-0 Iraq win is the most likely score. Iraq have scored more than once in only four of their last ten games, so one goal may well be enough to decide it. The honest worry is that Iraq do not win by much. They have won by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 17 games. Iraq also score less than a goal a game away from their own ground. Kuwait tied 3 of the last 5 meetings and are stubborn enough to grind out another. We still want Iraq to win this.

💬 Neither of these teams has played a competitive game for months, so expect a rusty, careful start. The Faroe Islands have not played in 109 days, and Kazakhstan have waited 179. The Faroes have made Torsvollur an awkward trip. They have 3 wins and 2 ties from their last six home games, and they let in 1 goal a game there. Across their last 15 games they score just over a goal a game, so they do not blow teams away either. Kazakhstan are the bigger problem for anyone who wants goals. They have won once in five away trips and score under a goal a game on the road. They are also missing Dastan Satpaev, their main goal threat, and Islam Chesnokov is suspended. That leaves them short of a real finisher. Their games stay quiet anyway, with 9 of the last 13 ending on 2 goals or fewer. The one previous meeting between these two had a single goal in it, and the Faroes won it. A 1-0 home win is the likely shape, decided by a set piece and then protected. The danger is an early Faroes goal. Kazakhstan have let in 3 a game across those five away trips, and they lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 13. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Iceland do not do quiet games. Their last 13 games have produced 4 goals a game on average, and 10 of those 13 had 3 or more goals in them. At home they score more than 2 a game and let in more than 2. They have beaten Azerbaijan 5-0, tied 2-2 with France, lost 3-5 to Ukraine and lost 1-3 to Kosovo there. Their first choice keeper is out after surgery, so an untested one starts behind a defence that already leaks. Estonia are the reason for the caution and part of the case at the same time. Their attack has been gutted, with Rauno Sappinen, Vladislav Kreida and Henri Anier all out. They score less than a goal a game and have won once in their last nine away trips. They also get beaten heavily, losing by 2 or more in 7 of their last 18. Iceland will camp in the Estonia half. This Iceland side still rarely keeps a clean sheet. A 2-1 Iceland win is the honest read, and we want this game busy, with three goals at the very least and a fourth no shock. The worry is a deep, stubborn Estonia. They won their last two 1-0, shutting out Lithuania and the Faroe Islands. We still want the busy game at Laugardalsvollur.

💬 These two give each other nothing when they meet. The last four games between them finished 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1. Bulgaria have not lost to Luxembourg in the last 5 meetings. Bulgaria's goal numbers are flattered by a 10-2 win over the Solomon Islands, which tells us nothing about a night like this. At home they score less than a goal a game. Luxembourg are worse again on the road, scoring less than a goal a game across their last seven trips. Only 4 of Luxembourg's last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. They kept clean sheets in both legs of their playoff win over Malta, so they can defend when they want to. This is the first game of a new group for two of Europe's weakest teams, and neither will take many risks. A 1-0 Bulgaria win is the obvious repeat, one goal deciding a poor game. The one real worry is Bulgaria's own defending. They let in almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16 games. An early Luxembourg goal could open this up more than it looks now. Everything about the way these two play still points to a quiet, low scoring night.

💬 Sabadell have not scored in a single away league game this season. They tied 0-0 at Sporting Gijon, tied 0-0 at Castellon and lost 0-2 at Mallorca. On the road they score less than a goal a game and have won once in seven trips. Celta Fortuna are in no state to blow the game open either. They are missing seven players, including Bernard Somuah after ankle surgery and Stefan Bajcetic, who is not ready yet. Three of those seven are away with their countries, so the shape of their attack is guesswork. Sabadell are the tidier side and are happy to sit deep, which is how they got those two goalless ties. They let in 1 goal a game, and 8 of their last 13 games ended on 2 goals or fewer. They are short too, missing four of their own, including Nicholas Gioacchini with a bad knee injury. Both teams played 6 days ago, so this is simply two thin squads who do not want to lose. A 1-0 home win is the likely shape, decided by a set piece or a substitute rather than a flow of chances. The risk is that Celta Fortuna's own games have not been quiet. Nine of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and Eibar put four past them at home. We still expect a slow game with few clear chances.

💬 Games between these two are always a grind. The last 14 meetings have produced just over 2 goals a game, and only 4 of those 14 had 3 or more goals in them. Tenerife are a big reason why. They have won 5, tied 1 and lost 1 of their last seven home games, and they barely let anything in at the Heliodoro. They have already beaten Almeria 1-0 and Leganes 2-0 there this season. Cadiz are not the side to break the pattern. They sit 19th with three points from six games, they have won once in their last 12, and they have lost their last three. They tie constantly, five times in those 12 games and in three of their five away trips. They are also without four players through injury and two more away with their countries. So the shape is easy to picture. Tenerife keep the ball, Cadiz sit in and try to stay in it, and one goal decides the night. A 1-0 home win is the likely result, with Cadiz pushing late and running out of ideas. The catch is that Cadiz games have been busier than this read allows. They score more than a goal a game on the road, losing 2-3 at Almeria and tying 2-2 at Eldense. On top of that, 7 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. We still want the tight, low-scoring game.

💬 Goals look hard to find in this one. Oman barely score, at less than a goal a game, and they have had three 0-0s in their last ten games. They have tied 7 of their last 14, which tells you how they set up. This is a side built to frustrate, not to open a game up. Saudi Arabia are no livelier right now. They score 1 goal a game, and their games have 2 goals in them in total on average. Their attack is picked apart for this one as well. Their first choice goalkeeper is out, a winger missed the final session, and captain Salem Al-Dawsari is carrying an injury. Both teams played only 3 days ago, so legs will be heavy on matchday 2 of the group. Put all that together and you get long spells of possession without much end product. A set piece looks like the best chance either side will get. A 0-0 is the likeliest finish here. The worry is history. Five of the last eight meetings between these two had three goals or more, so this pairing can break open once someone scores. If Saudi Arabia go ahead and Oman have to chase, the game changes shape fast. We still want the quiet night.

💬 Both these teams score, and this matchup keeps giving us goals. The last three meetings between England and Spain all had three goals or more: 1-2, 3-2 and 1-2. England have been great fun this year. They have won 12 of their last 14 games and score more than 2 goals a game. Eight of those 14 games had three goals or more. Their wins have been loose as well as loud, by 6-4, 3-2 and 2-1. Spain are the world champions and they attack like it. They have won 12 and tied 3 of their last 15 games without losing once, and they score more than 2 goals a game too. Nine of those 15 games had three goals or more. England are missing Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo from midfield, which is exactly where this game gets decided. That should let Spain through the middle more often than they normally would. A 1-2 Spain win is the likeliest finish, and that gives us the goals we want. The catch is Spain's defense. They have let in just 5 goals across that 15 game run, and once they lead they can keep the ball and shut the game down. A 1-0 either way is well within range. England leak enough at the back, though, so we are staying on goals.

💬 These two keep cancelling each other out. Three of the last four meetings ended in a tie, including a 0-0 in Prague last October. Czechia are also hard to beat in front of their own fans. They have lost one of their last nine home games, scoring almost 2 a game there and letting in 1 a game. Croatia look the better side on paper and they score more than 2 goals a game. That number is propped up by easy nights against Gibraltar, Montenegro and the Faroe Islands. Against serious opposition their last four games read 1-2 to Portugal, 2-1 over Ghana, 1-0 over Panama and 2-4 at England. Croatia are very good, not unbeatable. Both teams are cold as well. Czechia have had 93 days since their last game and Croatia 86, so rust and rotation come into it. Modrić and Kovačić should boss long spells without the game ever really opening up, and 1-1 looks the likeliest finish. That result is exactly what we want. The honest worry is Czechia's own state. Their World Cup was awful. They lost 0-3 to Mexico and 1-2 to South Korea. Defender David Jurásek is the seventh player they have lost to injury. A patched up back line against Croatia's forwards could crack. This matchup still points to a close game, and we are with Czechia.

💬 Albania should control this one, but they are not a team that runs up a score. They have scored more than one goal once in their last ten competitive games. Their last three wins were all 1-0, over Latvia, Serbia and Andorra. Albania score less than a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. Their games have almost 2 goals in them on average. Belarus are even quieter. They have won 1 of their last 12 games and tied six of them, and they barely score, at well under a goal a game. Belarus set up to survive, so expect a deep block and Albania trying to break it down. Neither side has played a competitive game in a long time. Albania have had 184 days since their last game and Belarus 312. Cold teams and a packed defense usually add up to a slow, stop-start night. A 1-0 Albania win is the likeliest finish, and that is the game we want. The risk is that Belarus fall apart instead. When they get beaten, they often get beaten badly, losing 0-6 at home to Denmark and 1-5 at Greece in their last qualifying campaign. One early Albania goal could turn this into a rout. Albania have not been that team for a long while, so we are staying with the low scoring night.

💬 Slovakia should win this. The question is by how much, and Slovakia are not a team that piles goals on. They score just over 1 goal a game, and at home they have scored three or more only once in their last eight there. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 15 games. Their defense is shaky too. Slovakia let in more than a goal a game. Their last two competitive games were a 3-4 loss at home to Kosovo and a 0-6 loss at Germany. Moldova are poor, no question. They have not won in fifteen games, they let in almost 3 goals a game, and they are without Vitalie Damascan. But Moldova's heaviest beatings came against far better attacks than this one, and they have not played a competitive game in 314 days. Rusty teams often sit in and stay organised for a long spell before they tire. Slovakia have named a full strength group with Dúbravka, Škriniar, Hancko, Lobotka and Duda, so expect them to go ahead and then manage the game out. A 2-0 Slovakia win is the likeliest finish, and that is right at the limit of what this pick can take. The risk is a rout. Moldova have lost by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 12 games, and their back line can fall apart completely. We still think Slovakia win without running riot.

💬 Home is where North Macedonia become a different team. They have not lost any of their last seven home games, winning four and tying three, and they let in less than a goal a game there. Belgium came to Skopje and were held 1-1. The hosts also have Stole Dimitrievski, Eljif Elmas, Enis Bardhi and Bojan Miovski available, so this is close to their best group. Switzerland are the stronger side, but they travel far less convincingly than they play at home. On the road they have won 1, tied 3 and lost 1, scoring 1 goal and letting in 1 a game. Three of those five away games ended tied. That is a careful team away from home, not one that runs teams over. North Macedonia have also lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 15 games, so heavy defeats are rare for them. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and a tight game is all we are asking for. The honest worry is the hosts' current form. They have not won any of their last five games, and on their travels they were hammered 1-7 at Wales and 0-4 at Denmark. Switzerland have also won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 12 games. Skopje is a different story, so we trust this one to stay close.

💬 Peru have stopped scoring, and that is the heart of this one. They have not scored in their last six games on the road, taking one tie and five defeats. Peru barely score anywhere, at well under a goal a game, and their games have under 2 goals in them on average. They have also gone 382 days without a competitive game, so nobody should expect them to be at their best. The USA are hard to trust here too. Mauricio Pochettino has torn up his squad and named 12 first time call ups and eight teenagers, including 16 year old Cavan Sullivan. Only Tyler Adams and Antonee Robinson carry real senior weight. A brand new side takes time to find its feet, and Peru's veterans will be happy to slow the night right down. Nine of Peru's last twelve games finished within a single goal, four of them ties. A scrappy 1-0 to the USA looks the likeliest finish, and that keeps the goals well down. The clear worry is the USA's own record. Their games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 7 of their last 10 had 3 or more. If the young forwards click early, this can get away from us fast. Peru's road record still says the goals are not coming, so we want the quiet game.

💬 Chile cannot score right now, and that is what makes Canada the side to back. Chile have taken one tie and five defeats from their last six games on the road, and they scored one goal in the whole run. They have not scored in six of their last eight games, including 0-0 with Uruguay, 0-3 to Brazil and 0-1 to Argentina. Chile score under a goal a game and let in almost 2. Canada are a different picture going forward. They score just over 2 goals a game, let in under a goal a game, and they have won 4 of their last 9. Chile have not played in 180 days. They are also rebuilding under an interim manager without Alexis Sanchez. Canada should have the ball and the territory all night, and the game turns on how ruthless they are with it. A 2-0 Canada win looks the likeliest finish, and that is plenty for this pick. The catch is Canada's back line. They are without Alphonso Davies, Alistair Johnston, Moise Bombito and Derek Cornelius, so the spine of their World Cup defense is missing. These two also tied 0-0 the last time they met, and a friendly brings heavy changes after the hour. Chile's attack is in no state to punish that, so we are with Canada.