Tips — Friday, 25 September 2026

💬 Saudi Arabia have the better record in this matchup, and that is where the case starts. They have won three of the last six meetings with Uzbekistan, including 2-0 and 1-0 wins. Uzbekistan have won two. This is a knockout game at a neutral ground in Nagoya, so neither side has a crowd behind them. Uzbekistan are playing well. They won all three group games, beating the Philippines 5-1, Kuwait 2-0 and Vietnam 2-0, and they finished top with a +8 goal difference. They let in well under a goal a game across their last 16. Saudi Arabia are more up and down. They have won 7 of their last 13 and lost 4, and they lost 0-2 to Korea Republic in their final group game. They do stay in games though. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in those 13. Both teams have had three days off and the loser goes out tonight, so expect a careful, tight game. The most likely score is a 1-0 Uzbekistan win, and that is not enough for us. Saudi Arabia have to take something from this game, and their record against this opponent says they can. The worry is that Uzbekistan have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 16. We are backing Saudi Arabia to stay with them.

💬 Vietnam are the reason we want the quieter game here. They have let in less than a goal a game across their last 15, and 13 of those 15 games had fewer than 4 goals in them. They sit deep and make life slow for better teams. Korea Republic are the stronger attacking side. They beat Qatar 4-1 and Saudi Arabia 2-0 to top their group, and they score more than 2 goals a game. That is the part that could hurt this pick. Vietnam got through the group the hard way. They lost 0-2 to Uzbekistan in their last game and scraped through on 4 points with a level goal difference. They are also reported to be without head coach Kim Sang-sik for this one, which points to an even more careful plan. This is a knockout game at a neutral ground in Nagoya, with both teams on three days' rest. The loser is out, so nobody throws bodies forward early. A 2-0 Korea win is the most likely score, and a game like that stays well inside what we need. The risk is real. Korea have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 13 games, and these two tied 2-2 in January. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 These two do not produce goals against each other. Three of the last four meetings finished 0-1, 1-1 and 0-1. That history is the strongest reason we want the low-scoring game. Mozambique score less than a goal a game and have lost 9 of their last 15. They have also not played a competitive game in 263 days. A team in that spot sits deep and tries to keep the score down, and that is what they will do here. Senegal are the class side. They have won 9 of their last 14 and score more than 2 goals a game. Their problem is timing. They are without Sadio Mane, Habib Diarra and Antoine Mendy, and Patrick Vieira takes his first competitive game in charge. New coaches and new front lines rarely click straight away. So the shape of this one looks clear. Senegal keep the ball, Mozambique defend their box, and the goals come slowly. A 0-2 Senegal win is the most likely score, and that lands this pick. There is a real worry on the other side. Senegal have had 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 14 games, and Mozambique let in 2 goals a game. If Senegal go 2-0 up early, a third can follow. We still want the lower-scoring game here.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that is the heart of this pick. Tanzania score just over a goal a game, and only 3 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Guinea-Bissau are worse going forward. Tanzania have won just 2 of their last 7 home games and score less than a goal a game at home. Their last ten include 0-1 home defeats to Zambia, Niger and Morocco. That is the pattern here: tight, low games decided by one moment. Guinea-Bissau have won 2 of their last 16 games and score less than a goal a game. They have no win in 7 on the road, with 1 tie and 6 losses. They have also not played a competitive game in 348 days, which rarely brings a free-flowing attack. There is no history between these two to lean on, so the shape of the game does the talking. Expect long spells with nothing in them. A 1-0 result is the most likely score, and that suits us. The danger sits in the group table. Tanzania are already through to AFCON 2027 as co-hosts, so the result means little to them. Guinea-Bissau need points, and a side chasing a win late can crack a game open. We still expect very few goals here.

💬 Sudan do not really have a home game here. The war has pushed this one over the border to Juba in South Sudan, so there is no home crowd and no familiar ground to help them. Ethiopia are the better team. Sudan barely score. They have won just 2 of their last 16 games, tying 5 and losing 9, and they score less than a goal a game. They were shut out in six of their last ten, including a 0-0 with Mauritania and a 0-1 at Congo DR. They have also not won by 2 or more goals in any of those 16 games. Ethiopia have won 7 of their last 17 and 3 of their last 5, and they score just over a goal a game. They are not solid at the back though, letting in more than a goal a game, and well organised teams have kept them quiet. Both sides are rusty. Sudan have not played a competitive game in 265 days, Ethiopia in 178. Sudan's games average under 2 goals in total, so this shapes as a slow, scrappy first night of the group. A 0-1 Ethiopia win is the most likely finish, and that lands this pick. The worry is the history. Sudan have won 4 of the last 7 meetings, taking the last two 2-0 and 2-1. Those wins came in a competition for home-based players, so they may not carry into a full-squad qualifier. Ethiopia are still the side we want.

💬 Northern Ireland do not play in busy games, and that is the heart of this pick. Only 4 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals, and their games have just over 2 goals in them on average. They are also a much smaller threat on the road. Away from home they have won once in seven, tying two and losing four, and they score under a goal a game on their travels. Their team news points the same way. Captain Conor Bradley is out, along with midfielders Ali McCann and Brad Lyons, and McDonnell pulled out with a hamstring problem. A patched up side away from home tends to sit in and keep the game small. Georgia will have the ball and the better players. Their heavy nights came against Spain and Türkiye, who are a level above this. At home to Bulgaria, Armenia and Ukraine they let in two goals in three games. They have also lost their last four and have not played in 311 days. A 2-0 Georgia win is the most likely score, and that lands this one. The danger is Georgia themselves. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 14 games, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia against a makeshift back line could blow this open. We still expect a controlled, low-scoring night in Tbilisi.

💬 Armenia have owned this matchup lately, and that is the main reason we are on them. They have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Latvia, including a 2-1 win in Riga and a 4-1 at home. Armenia's wider record looks poor. They have won 3, tied 1 and lost 10 of their last 14 games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game. Look closer and a big chunk of that is Portugal, who beat them 1-9 and 0-5 in the same run. This group is a much kinder test. Latvia are the bigger problem going forward. They score less than a goal a game, and they were held to one goal or fewer in nine of their last ten. They have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 18 games. They also arrive without Roberts Ikaunieks, one of their most experienced and productive players. A 1-0 Armenia win is the most likely finish, and that is enough for this pick. Expect a slow, scrappy night in Yerevan with one goal deciding it. The worry is Armenia themselves. They have lost their last four games, and they have not played in 313 days, so match fitness is a genuine question. Latvia tie plenty of games and will be happy to sit in and spoil it. We still think Armenia have just enough to win this one.

💬 This is one of the quietest pairings on the card, and that is why we want the low-scoring game. Malawi's games have under 2 goals in them on average, and only 3 of their last 13 had 3 or more goals. Malawi neither score much nor give much away. They score under a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. At home they are tighter still, letting in well under a goal a game across seven games there, where they have won three, tied one and lost three. South Sudan bring even less. They have won once in ten away games, tying three and losing six, and they score under a goal a game on the road. The history says the same thing. None of the three previous meetings had more than 2 goals in it, and Malawi won two of them 1-0. Malawi are also without their captain Gabadinho Mhango through injury, so there is even less quality in the final third. A 1-0 Malawi win looks like the most likely score, and that sits comfortably inside what we want. The warning comes from South Sudan's wider record. They have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 20 games, and they won 4-0 at Djibouti back in March. We still expect a cramped, nervy night with very few chances.

💬 Nigeria are without the strikers who turn control into goals, and that is the main reason we are with Madagascar here. Victor Osimhen is out with a muscle injury and Paul Onuachu is missing too, with Taiwo Awoniyi called in as the replacement. Nigeria's last two games both finished 0-0, against Egypt and Morocco. Nigeria are still the far better team. They are unbeaten in their last 12 games, winning 8 and tying 4, and they let in well under a goal a game. Expect them to have the ball for most of the night. Madagascar are no easy touch though. They have won 6 and lost only 5 of their last 14 games, and they have lost by 2 or more goals in just 2 of those 14. They also won the only previous meeting between the sides, 2-0 back in 2019. Both squads are cold. Nigeria have not played in 251 days and Madagascar in 348, so neither side should be at its best straight away. A 2-0 Nigeria win is the most likely score, and that finish leaves this pick nothing to spare. We need Madagascar to keep the margin down, and their record says they usually do. The risk is Nigeria's home form. They have 5 wins and 2 ties in their last seven games there, and they won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 12. We still trust Madagascar to stay in touch.

💬 Rwanda are a hard team to beat at the Amahoro, and that is what this pick rests on. Across ten home games they have let in under a goal a game, winning five and tying two. Liberia give them little to fear. They have not won any of their five away games, tying two and losing three, and they score under a goal a game on the road. They let in nearly 2 goals a game overall, so they are not built to shut a game down either. Rwanda score just over a goal a game, which is modest. It should still be more than enough against a side that struggles to travel. Both teams have had a long break too. Rwanda have not played in 179 days and Liberia in 347, which points to a scrappy, low-quality opener. A 1-0 Rwanda win looks like the most likely finish, and that is enough for this pick. The caution is Rwanda's shortage of goals against real qualifying opposition. Their best home wins came against Grenada and Estonia in the FIFA Series. At home in qualifying they have had 0-1 to Benin, 1-1 with Lesotho, 0-2 to Nigeria and 2-1 over South Sudan. Liberia have also tied 1-1 at Equatorial Guinea and 2-2 at Malawi on recent away trips. We still want Rwanda to find the goal that wins it.

💬 Burundi do not score against decent teams. In their last ten games every goal they got came against Chad and Seychelles. The other seven all ended 0-1 or 0-2 defeats, including 0-2 at Gabon and 0-1 at home to Kenya. Togo get them at their own ground in Lomé. They have won 3, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last eight there, letting in less than a goal a game. Togo are close to full strength as well. Kévin Denkey, Kodjo Laba and captain Djene Dakonam are all in camp, and only Kennedy Boateng is out injured. Burundi have won 4, tied 1 and lost 10 of their last 15 games. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of them, so the margin can grow once they go behind. These two have never met. Togo have waited 347 days for this game and Burundi 178. Expect a quiet opener that Togo control through territory rather than quality. A narrow 1-0 Togo win is the honest read. That keeps this pick alive, and a second goal is what turns it into a comfortable one. The catch is Togo's habit of tying. They have tied 7 of their last 16 games, and they have won by 2 or more goals only twice in that run. A year without a real game is a worry too, and Togo score almost a goal a game. Togo are still the side we want.

💬 Albacete are the reason we want a quiet game here. They sit 21st of 22 in the table with one point from six games, having scored four goals and let in ten. On the road they score less than a goal a game, and they have not won since May. Girona are the better side by a distance. They sit eighth on ten points and have won three of their last five league games, beating Cadiz 2-1 and Sporting Gijon 2-0. Girona score more than a goal a game and let in about the same, so they win games without running up big scores. That mix points to a controlled evening rather than a shootout. The last four meetings between these two averaged 2 goals in total, and none of Albacete's six league games this season has had more than three goals. A 2-0 Girona win looks the likeliest end, with the hosts ahead early and happy to manage the rest. That score lands on the right side of this one. The warning is Girona themselves. Their six league games this season have averaged just over 3 goals, and that includes a 5-2 win over Las Palmas. They have also let in a goal in five of the six. If Albacete grab one and Girona keep chasing more, the goals column gets busy fast. We still expect the slower version of this game.

💬 Türkiye do not get beaten heavily. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 16 games, and that is the whole case for giving them a head start. Türkiye have won 10 of those 16 and score more than 2 goals a game. They carry a real threat of their own in front of their own crowd. France are the better team and nobody is arguing with that. They have won 12 of their last 16 and score almost 3 goals a game. The problem for them is the back line. William Saliba, Ibrahima Konate and Aurelien Tchouameni are all out, so Zinedine Zidane picks a patched-up side in his first competitive game in charge. Kylian Mbappe also missed training this week feeling unwell. First nights under a new manager are usually careful ones. Türkiye have not lost either of the last two meetings, a 1-1 tie and a 2-0 win, and those games averaged 2 goals. We read this as a 1-2 France win, with Türkiye scoring and staying within a goal, and that keeps the head start safe. The honest worry is what France can do when they click. They have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 16 games, so one early goal could turn this into a comfortable night for them. We are still happy to take Türkiye with the start.

💬 Ukraine arrive without a centre-forward, and that is the strongest reason to expect a quiet night. Artem Dovbyk and Artem Stepanov are injured, Oleksandr Andriyevskyi is out after appendicitis, and Roman Yaremchuk has a knee problem. Andrea Maldera takes charge for the first time with a front line he has never picked. Hungary are not built to blow a game open either. They have won one of their last seven home games and score barely more than a goal a game in them. Dominik Szoboszlai gives them a way through and their squad is reported fully fit, but this side grinds results out. Then there is the rust. Hungary have not played a competitive game in 313 days and Ukraine have waited 183. This is the first night of League B, and opening games between rusty teams are usually careful. A 1-1 looks the likeliest end, with Hungary pushing through their captain and Ukraine dangerous on the break but short of a finisher. That score is what we want. The doubt is real though. Hungary have had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 14 games, and Ukraine in 9 of their last 15. Ukraine have also let in more than 2 goals a game in their away games. If this one opens up early, the quiet read is gone. We are still backing the tight game.

💬 Both of these teams have been in busy games all year, and that is the simplest reason to back goals. Poland have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 16 games, and their games have averaged just over 3 goals in total. They score more than a goal a game and let in about the same, so they rarely keep a night quiet at either end. Robert Lewandowski leads a side that has won four of its last eight competitive home games. Bosnia give goals up on the road. They let in 2 goals a game away from home. They are also without defender Amar Dedic and midfielder Kenan Busuladzic, so fresh faces come into their back line. Bosnia still carry a threat, with Edin Dzeko starting a farewell autumn and Ermedin Demirovic alongside him. Poland come back to competitive football still hurting from the March play-off loss in Sweden that cost them a World Cup place. Their recent games have been open, including that 2-3 in Sweden and a 2-2 with Nigeria. A 2-1 Poland win looks the likeliest end, and three goals clears this. The catch is Bosnia's attack. They have made very little in their last four games and still scored five, so their goals have come from finishing rather than chances. If they sit deep and Poland labour, a 1-0 kills it. We are still on the busier game.

💬 Both teams come into this with holes at the back, and that is the main reason we want goals. Sweden are without centre-backs Isak Hien and Gustaf Lagerbielke, so a new pairing has to hold Romania off on opening night. Romania are missing Rus and Coman at the back themselves. Sweden score almost 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, and 9 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. They also keep Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak together up front, which is as much firepower as anyone in this group. Romania have won 9 of their last 14 and score more than 2 goals a game, and 10 of those 14 games had 3 or more goals. Romania have not played a competitive game in 183 days. Expect them to sit deep and stay tight early, then get stretched as legs go. We read this 2-1 to Sweden, so a third goal is the least this needs, and a fourth would make it comfortable. The warning here is real. The last three meetings between these two averaged only 2 goals, and Sweden's attack has been cold across their last four games. We still want the busier game in Stockholm.

💬 Montenegro do not score enough to beat anyone by a distance, and that is why we want Cyprus with a head start. Montenegro have scored twelve goals in their last fourteen competitive games, which is less than a goal a game. They have won only 4 of those 14 and lost 10. They let in almost 2 goals a game. Cyprus are not much better, but they do not need to be. They arrive unbeaten in three under Akis Mantzios, and they held both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Romania to 2-2 in their last campaign. Cyprus also score around a goal a game, so there is very little between these two. Neither side has played a competitive game since November. Montenegro have had 312 days off and Cyprus 314, and this is the first night of League C. Rusty teams in an opening game usually play it safe, and that suits the side getting help. A 1-1 looks the likeliest end, and that score is a win here. The risk is how badly Cyprus travel. They have won 2 and lost 5 of their away games in this run, including a 1-4 at Romania. They have lost by 2 or more in 6 of their last 14 games. Montenegro have also not tied any of those 14. Cyprus with a head start is still the pick we want.

💬 Zambia barely score, and that is the first thing to know about this game. They have scored in only 4 of their last 10 games, they score under a goal a game, and they have won just 1 of their last 12. They also arrive in Tizi-Ouzou 270 days after their last competitive game, with a new coach in charge. Algeria are much the better side, but they are not a team that runs up big scores at home. They score more than a goal a game across their last nine home games. That run includes 1-0 wins over Congo DR and Burkina Faso and a 1-1 with the UAE. Algeria's games have had under 3 goals in them on average. The shape of this one is easy to picture. Algeria keep the ball and push, Zambia sit deep and hope to counter through Patson Daka. It is matchday 1 and Algeria have a new coach too, so nobody takes a risk early. A 2-0 Algeria win is the likely finish, and that is a quiet enough night for us. The risk is history. The last four meetings averaged 4 goals, including a 3-3 and a 5-0, though all of those were played between 2017 and 2021 with different squads. We are still backing the low-scoring game.

💬 Benin give a goalkeeper very little to do at the other end. They score under a goal a game and have managed more than one goal only twice in their last 10 games. On the road they have won one of six. They are also without their captain and main striker Steve Mounie, who is injured, and defender Olivier Verdon is suspended. Burkina Faso should win this, but they are not built to hammer anyone. They score 2 goals a game at home and have lost once there in five. Their games have had under 3 goals in them on average. The bigger point is the calendar. Neither side has played a competitive game in about 262 days, and Burkina Faso only trained together for the first time on 22 September. Openers after a break that long start slowly and stay cautious. We see Burkina Faso probing for a long stretch and then getting the game won late, which is how a 2-0 happens. That finish leaves nothing to spare, and a third goal is the one thing we cannot have. The last five meetings averaged almost 3 goals, and Burkina Faso won the most recent one 3-0 last November. An early goal would change the whole feel of this. We still want the quiet game in Ouagadougou.

💬 Egypt win games, but they win them small. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 15 games, and they have tied 7 of those 15. At home they score more than a goal a game and no more than that. They are also missing players through the spine. Midfielder Hamdy Fathy, Yasser Ibrahim and forward Mahmoud Trezeguet are all out, which leaves Mohamed Salah as the one player Egypt can really trust for a goal. Angola are a hard side to break down. They let in under a goal a game and they have tied four of their last five. They have lost by 2 or more goals only 2 times in their last 15 games, so heavy defeats are not their pattern. These two met last December at the Africa Cup of Nations and finished 0-0, and their last three meetings averaged under 2 goals with two ties. Cairo should get another slow night. We read this 1-0 to Egypt, with Salah finding one goal and the hosts then protecting it, and Angola stay inside their head start. The worry is rust. Angola have not played a competitive game in 270 days and their coach only took the job in April. A loud Cairo crowd and an early goal could make this a longer evening than we want. We are still taking Angola with the start.

💬 Mali are very hard to score against, and that is why one goal should be enough for them here. No team has scored more than one goal against Mali in their last 5 games, and they let in less than a goal a game. At home they have won 3, tied 3 and lost 1 of their last 7 games, and they score more than 2 goals a game there. They have not lost by 2 or more goals once in their last 15 games. Cape Verde lost 2-3 to Argentina in their last game, but they tied the four before it. They have just come off a World Cup, where they held Spain to 0-0 and tied 2-2 with Uruguay. Those results say more about their defending than their attacking, because they created almost nothing in either game. Away from home they let in more than a goal a game across their last 8 away games, including a 3-3 in Libya. Both teams start under a brand-new coach, and the two countries have no history against each other at all. We read this 1-0 to Mali, and a one-goal home win gets the job done. The honest worry is that Mali tie a lot of games. Four of their last five finished level, and they have not played a competitive game in 259 days, so rust is a real thing here. We are still backing Mali to find the goal that wins it.

💬 Gabon turn up in poor shape, and that is the main reason we are on Morocco here. They have won none of their last five, losing four of them, and their only result in that run was a 2-2 tie with Trinidad and Tobago. They have also gone 179 days without a game, so match fitness is a real question. Morocco are the opposite. They have won 10 of their last 15 games and lost only one. They let in well under a goal a game, with clean sheets against Senegal, Cameroon, Scotland and Canada in their last ten. A defence that good means they rarely have to chase a game. Gabon are open at the back. They let in more than a goal a game, and they gave up 3 or more against Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Uzbekistan and Nigeria in their last ten. Morocco have won the last two competitive meetings 5-1 and 4-1, so this matchup already suits them. A 2-0 Morocco win looks like the most likely score. Morocco take control early, then add a second once Gabon tire. The catch is Morocco's team news. They are missing Achraf Hakimi and Ismael Saibari through suspension, and strikers Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub El Kaabi are hurt. A new coach also takes his first competitive game in charge, so a tight 1-0 is a real danger. We still think Morocco have far too much for this Gabon side.