Malawi vs South Sudan — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: This is one of the quietest pairings on the card, and that is why we want the low-scoring game. Malawi's games have under 2 goals in them on average, and only 3 of their last 13 had 3 or more goals. Malawi neither score much nor give much away. They score under a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. At home they are tighter still, letting in well under a goal a game across seven games there, where they have won three, tied one and lost three. South Sudan bring even less. They have won once in ten away games, tying three and losing six, and they score under a goal a game on the road. The history says the same thing. None of the three previous meetings had more than 2 goals in it, and Malawi won two of them 1-0. Malawi are also without their captain Gabadinho Mhango through injury, so there is even less quality in the final third. A 1-0 Malawi win looks like the most likely score, and that sits comfortably inside what we want. The warning comes from South Sudan's wider record. They have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 20 games, and they won 4-0 at Djibouti back in March. We still expect a cramped, nervy night with very few chances.