Algeria vs Zambia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Zambia barely score, and that is the first thing to know about this game. They have scored in only 4 of their last 10 games, they score under a goal a game, and they have won just 1 of their last 12. They also arrive in Tizi-Ouzou 270 days after their last competitive game, with a new coach in charge. Algeria are much the better side, but they are not a team that runs up big scores at home. They score more than a goal a game across their last nine home games. That run includes 1-0 wins over Congo DR and Burkina Faso and a 1-1 with the UAE. Algeria's games have had under 3 goals in them on average. The shape of this one is easy to picture. Algeria keep the ball and push, Zambia sit deep and hope to counter through Patson Daka. It is matchday 1 and Algeria have a new coach too, so nobody takes a risk early. A 2-0 Algeria win is the likely finish, and that is a quiet enough night for us. The risk is history. The last four meetings averaged 4 goals, including a 3-3 and a 5-0, though all of those were played between 2017 and 2021 with different squads. We are still backing the low-scoring game.