Armenia vs Latvia — Tips & Analysis

Armenia -0.5: Armenia have owned this matchup lately, and that is the main reason we are on them. They have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Latvia, including a 2-1 win in Riga and a 4-1 at home. Armenia's wider record looks poor. They have won 3, tied 1 and lost 10 of their last 14 games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game. Look closer and a big chunk of that is Portugal, who beat them 1-9 and 0-5 in the same run. This group is a much kinder test. Latvia are the bigger problem going forward. They score less than a goal a game, and they were held to one goal or fewer in nine of their last ten. They have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 18 games. They also arrive without Roberts Ikaunieks, one of their most experienced and productive players. A 1-0 Armenia win is the most likely finish, and that is enough for this pick. Expect a slow, scrappy night in Yerevan with one goal deciding it. The worry is Armenia themselves. They have lost their last four games, and they have not played in 313 days, so match fitness is a genuine question. Latvia tie plenty of games and will be happy to sit in and spoil it. We still think Armenia have just enough to win this one.