Tips — Thursday, 24 September 2026

💬 Palestine almost never get beaten heavily, and that is what this pick leans on. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 9 games. Palestine are a low scoring, hard to break down side. They score just over a goal a game and let in a goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 2 of those 9, so level games are their habit. New Zealand look frightening on paper. They score almost 4 goals a game. Look closer and that number comes from Oceania wins like 8-0 over Samoa, 8-1 over Vanuatu and 7-0 over Fiji. Against World Cup opposition they scored once, once and twice. They have also lost 3 of their last 9. Both squads have flown to Chongqing for this one, so neither team is hosting. New Zealand have picked a fresh squad for the trip, which points to a scrappy, stop start game rather than an open one. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score, and Palestine staying level or close is all we need. The worry is real. Palestine have not played in 287 days, so nobody knows how rusty they will be. A friendly also makes team selection a guess on both sides. We still think Palestine keep this tight.

💬 Uruguay have almost nothing going forward right now, and that is why we are backing Japan. Uruguay scored two goals in total across their last seven away games. They tied five of those seven and won none of them. Japan are the opposite. They have won 6, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 11 games. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. They have not been beaten by 2 or more goals once in those 11. Uruguay also come in without the heart of their team. Federico Valverde is out with an ankle problem, and Manuel Ugarte and Sergio Rochet are missing too. That is a big chunk taken out of a side that already ties everything. Uruguay have tied 7 of their last 14 games, and those games average under 2 goals in total. Expect Japan to have the ball for long spells against a team happy to sit deep and defend. A 1-0 to Japan is the most likely score, probably late on when Uruguay's legs go. That is enough here. The risk is the obvious one. Uruguay are stubborn and very hard to beat. This is also the first of four games in Japan's series, so both coaches will change plenty of players. We still want Japan to find the goal that wins it.

💬 Ecuador turn up here without the heart of their team, and that is the case for goals. Moises Caicedo, Piero Hincapie, Joel Ordonez and Kendry Paez are all missing. Enner Valencia has retired from international football. Pull four starters out of a defensive team and it stops being the same defensive team. South Korea get Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in back for Roberto Moreno's first game in charge. They score more than a goal a game and have won 5 of their last 10. Ecuador are the reason to be careful. They let in under a goal a game across their last 12. Only 3 of those 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. Both sides have been making far more chances than their low scores show, and that is what we are betting on. This is also South Korea's first game back after the World Cup, under a stand in coach, with a stream of substitutions likely. Games like that get loose. Be clear about the tension. The most likely single score is still a 1-0 to South Korea, and that is not the game we want. This needs Korea to click early and a patched up Ecuador defense to crack. With four of their best men out, we think it will.

💬 China win this game. They just do not win games by a lot any more, and that is the point of this pick. China have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 17 games. They are struggling badly as well. They have won 5, tied 1 and lost 11 of those 17. They score less than a goal a game. Their best recent results against teams of this kind are a 2-0 over Curacao and 1-0 wins over Hong Kong and Bahrain. That is a team who grind out narrow wins, not a team who run up scores. The Maldives are poor and they know it. They have lost 8 of their last 11 games and all six of their last away trips. They let in more than 2 goals a game on those trips. They are set up to survive, with a packed midfield and Ali Haisham alone up front. A plan like that usually keeps the score down. A 2-0 to China is the most likely score, and that suits us fine. The one worry is history. China won all four past meetings 5-0, 5-0, 4-0 and 3-0. Those were stronger China teams than this one, and this one barely scores. We are happy to take the Maldives.

💬 Congo DR do not need a big win here, and that suits this pick. They let in less than a goal a game, and only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Congo DR score just over a goal a game. They take their chances rather than make a pile of them, so they go in front and then control things. Their recent run shows the level they are at. They tied 1-1 with Portugal, beat Uzbekistan 3-1 and lost 1-2 to England in the World Cup last 16. Equatorial Guinea will not open this up. They score under a goal a game, have lost 7 of their last 12 games and arrive on 267 days without a competitive game. Their plan will be to sit deep and keep the damage to one goal. They usually manage it, and have lost by 3 or more goals only twice in their last 12. Congo DR also play again on 28 September, so there is every reason to ease off once they are ahead. A 2-0 home win is the likely script, and that is a winning result for us. The one worry is that 6 of Equatorial Guinea's last 12 games had 3 or more goals, so they can get dragged into open games. An early goal at either end would change the shape of this. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Mauritania have won all four previous meetings with Central African Republic, and they did it the same way each time. Those games finished 1-0, 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0, the most recent a 1-0 win in August 2025. Mauritania are hard to score against. They let in less than a goal a game, and only 1 of their last 10 games had 3 or more goals. They barely score themselves, with 4 goals in 10 competitive games, so nobody should expect them to pull away here. Central African Republic are the weaker side by some distance. They have lost 9 of their last 13 games and let in almost 2 goals a game. That run includes a 0-5 home defeat by Ghana and 0-2 losses to Comoros and Madagascar. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 13 games. Central African Republic have not played a competitive game in 347 days and Mauritania in 303, so expect a cautious, slow game. A 1-0 Mauritania win is the most likely score, and that is a winning result for this pick. The warning is simple. A goalless tie sits right behind that 1-0, because Mauritania score so rarely. Central African Republic are also better away from home. They score more than a goal a game on the road and have two wins in their last five away games. We still expect Mauritania to find the goal that wins it.

💬 Qatar have gone off the boil, and that is the heart of this one. They have won just 2 of their last 11 games, tying 3 and losing 6. They have not won since October 2025 and did not score in three of the six games since. Qatar barely score, well under a goal a game, and they let in 2 goals a game. They have not won by 2 or more goals once in those 11 games. Bahrain come in as defending champions and have won 5 of their last 12. They score about a goal a game, so nobody should expect a party, but they look the better balanced side. Jeddah is neutral ground for both teams, so Qatar get no lift from a crowd or a familiar pitch. The last 5 meetings were tight, with Qatar winning 1, tying 2 and losing 2, and those games averaged just under 3 goals. That is the shape we expect again. A slow, careful first game of the tournament that turns on one moment. A 1-0 Bahrain win is the read. The warning is real, though. Bahrain have not played a competitive game in 289 days, so their current level is a guess. They have also let in a goal in 14 of their 15 games since the start of 2025. We still want to be on Bahrain here.

💬 This game is close almost every time it is played. The last four meetings finished 0-1, 2-2, 1-2 and 1-1, so a single goal or a tie has decided each one. The Netherlands have not lost any of their last 16 games, but they tied 7 of them, and most of those ties came against good teams. They are strong in Amsterdam, winning 5 and tying 4 of their last 9 home games. The problem is who is missing. Frenkie de Jong, Xavi Simons, Matthijs de Ligt, Donyell Malen and Justin Kluivert are all out, and Memphis Depay was not called up. Germany are just as thin, without Florian Wirtz, Nick Woltemade, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Leon Goretzka and Deniz Undav. Both teams also have a new manager in charge for a first competitive game. Two patched squads and two new plans usually mean a careful night, not an open one. Germany are no passengers either. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 9 of their last 16. A 1-1 is the read, and that is the sort of night we want Germany for. The risk is plain. The Dutch score 3 goals a game and have not lost at home in that run, so an early goal could let them take over. We are happy to back Germany to avoid defeat.

💬 Serbia have lost the players who score their goals. Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic are both out, and so are centre-back Nikola Milenkovic and goalkeeper Predrag Rajkovic. That is a huge hole for a side that already struggles in front of goal. Serbia score a goal a game across their last 15 and have won only 6 of them. Their last five results read win, loss, win, loss, loss. Greece are the better team here even in Belgrade. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won 8 of their last 14. Neither side has kicked a ball in a competitive game since November. Serbia have waited 312 days and Greece 310. Expect a slow, scrappy opening night with few clear chances and plenty of loose passing. A single goal should decide it, and we think Greece are the side to get it. A 0-1 away win is our read and that is exactly what we want. The worry is that Greece are patchy too. They have taken one win from their last five, with 1-3 and 0-3 beatings by Denmark and a 1-3 loss to Scotland. They are also missing Lazaros Rota, Dimitris Giannoulis and Giannis Konstantelias, so this is no stroll. Even so, Serbia without their forwards look the weaker side, and we are with Greece.

💬 Both of these teams turn up in busy games. Portugal have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games, and Wales in 8 of their last 15. Portugal score more than 2 goals a game and have Cristiano Ronaldo back in the squad with no real injury worries. They also let in just over a goal a game, so they are not a side that shuts the door. Wales arrive in worse shape. They have lost Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Rubin Colwill from the attack, and Joe Rodon from the back. Against Belgium, the one top side they have faced lately, Wales let in four goals twice. Expect Wales to sit deep and soak up pressure, with Portugal pushing them further and further back in Lisbon. The most likely single score is a 2-0 Portugal win, and on its own that is not enough for us. We need this game to open up, and a third goal is what we are after. Wales have not played a competitive game in 182 days. A rusty defence under that much pressure tends to crack more than once. The worry is a real one. Portugal have won by 2 or more in only 4 of their last 16, and they have been scoring more than their chances deserve. Wales can also keep things tight for long spells. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Norway are a different team to the one Denmark used to handle. They have won 12 of their last 14 games and lost just 2, with no ties at all in that run. They also won all 7 of their away games. Erling Haaland arrives with 7 goals in the first 7 club games of the season, and starts alongside Martin Ødegaard. Only Alexander Sørloth is missing. At Ullevaal they have averaged 4 goals a game. Denmark arrive in worse shape. They are without Andreas Christensen, Alexander Bah, Kasper Dolberg, Christian Eriksen and Mathias Jensen. That takes out the back line and the midfield control they lean on. Denmark still carry a threat, scoring 2 goals a game on the road, but they let in more than a goal a game on their travels. Norway have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 14, so a clear win is normal for them. We read this as a 3-1 Norway win, and a Norway win is what we want. Two things could spoil it. The only meeting on record went 3-1 to Denmark back in June 2024. Norway's big scoring numbers also lean on an 11-1 win over Moldova and a 5-0 against Israel. Norway are still the side to be on.

💬 The case here is simple. Austria are strong at home, but they do not win big very often. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 5 of their last 16 games. Austria have not lost any of their last 7 home games, winning 4 and tying 3, and they score almost 3 goals a game there. That is a good side, but it is a half new one. Ralf Rangnick has called up seven uncapped players for this window, so the starting team is part experiment. Israel are weaker and let in more than 2 goals a game, so they will be pinned back for long spells. They do score, though. Israel get almost 2 goals a game themselves, and 12 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. These two have never played a quiet game, with the four on record averaging almost 6 goals. So we expect Austria to win a match they never quite put to bed, with Israel getting on the board. A 2-1 Austria win is the read, and Israel staying within a goal is what this pick needs. The risk is a rout. Israel have lost by 2 or more in 6 of their last 14 games, and an Austria front line that clicks early could pull clear. We will take Israel to keep this close.

💬 Comoros have stopped scoring. They have not found the net in six of their last ten games, with 0-0 ties against Namibia, Mali and Zambia in that run. They score under a goal a game and have won just 2 of their last 14. Cameroon are the better side but they are not a team that runs up big scores. They score just over a goal a game and let in under one, and 12 of their last 18 games had 2 goals or fewer. Not one of those 18 games had more than 4 goals in it. Bryan Mbeumo joins a rebuilt squad and should help, but one man does not change a whole team's habits overnight. Cameroon will have the ball for most of the night in Garoua and Comoros will sit deep and defend. That is the shape of a slow game, not an open one. A 1-0 home win is the likely story, and one goal sits comfortably inside what we want. The warning is the head to head. The last three meetings between them averaged almost 3 goals, including a 2-1 and a 1-1. Cameroon also have a new coach in David Pagou with several players in line for debuts, so the shape is unproven. An early goal could stretch this. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.

💬 These two hardly score against each other. Their last four meetings produced 1 goal a game between them, and two of those games finished 0-0. Nothing in the team news suggests that changes. Ghana are without captain Jordan Ayew, Antoine Semenyo and Mohammed Kudus, their three best attackers. Ivory Coast have their own problems, with Sebastien Haller, Amad Diallo and Simon Adingra all missing. Ivory Coast are strong at home. They have won 5 of their last 7 there and let in under a goal a game in that run. But they win by 2 or more in only 4 of their last 13 games, so big margins are not their style. Ghana defend well and have lost by 2 or more only once in their last 12. They let in under a goal a game too. Put two blunted attacks, a low scoring head to head and a side that grinds out narrow wins together, and you get a close game in Bouake. Our read is a tight 1-0 Ivory Coast win, and that keeps us safe. What beats us is Ivory Coast winning by 2 or more. Ghana's clean record has flattered them a little, and they are hard to call under Carlos Queiroz with so many players out. We still want Ghana staying close here.

💬 Zimbabwe barely score. They have managed under a goal a game across their last 11 games, and eight of their last ten ended with them scoring one or none. They have won once in those 11 and have no win in their last five. Sierra Leone are a little better but not much. They score just over a goal a game, and 10 of their last 17 games finished with 2 goals or fewer. They have also tied 6 of those 17, which tells you how often their games stay locked. This is the first ever meeting between the two and it is on neutral ground in Morocco, so neither side gets a crowd behind them. Neither side has played in months. Sierra Leone have waited 178 days and Zimbabwe 269. Rusty teams start slowly and keep things tight, and everything here points to a cagey night decided by one moment. A 1-0 win for Sierra Leone is the likely story, and that sits well inside what we want. The risk is that there is no history between them to lean on, so a surprise is harder to rule out. Both squads have handed call ups to uncapped players, and one early goal could stretch a game nobody expects to open up. We are still happy taking the quiet game.