Togo vs Burundi — Tips & Analysis

Togo -0.75: Burundi do not score against decent teams. In their last ten games every goal they got came against Chad and Seychelles. The other seven all ended 0-1 or 0-2 defeats, including 0-2 at Gabon and 0-1 at home to Kenya. Togo get them at their own ground in Lomé. They have won 3, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last eight there, letting in less than a goal a game. Togo are close to full strength as well. Kévin Denkey, Kodjo Laba and captain Djene Dakonam are all in camp, and only Kennedy Boateng is out injured. Burundi have won 4, tied 1 and lost 10 of their last 15 games. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of them, so the margin can grow once they go behind. These two have never met. Togo have waited 347 days for this game and Burundi 178. Expect a quiet opener that Togo control through territory rather than quality. A narrow 1-0 Togo win is the honest read. That keeps this pick alive, and a second goal is what turns it into a comfortable one. The catch is Togo's habit of tying. They have tied 7 of their last 16 games, and they have won by 2 or more goals only twice in that run. A year without a real game is a worry too, and Togo score almost a goal a game. Togo are still the side we want.