Mali vs Cape Verde Islands — Tips & Analysis

Mali -0.25: Mali are very hard to score against, and that is why one goal should be enough for them here. No team has scored more than one goal against Mali in their last 5 games, and they let in less than a goal a game. At home they have won 3, tied 3 and lost 1 of their last 7 games, and they score more than 2 goals a game there. They have not lost by 2 or more goals once in their last 15 games. Cape Verde lost 2-3 to Argentina in their last game, but they tied the four before it. They have just come off a World Cup, where they held Spain to 0-0 and tied 2-2 with Uruguay. Those results say more about their defending than their attacking, because they created almost nothing in either game. Away from home they let in more than a goal a game across their last 8 away games, including a 3-3 in Libya. Both teams start under a brand-new coach, and the two countries have no history against each other at all. We read this 1-0 to Mali, and a one-goal home win gets the job done. The honest worry is that Mali tie a lot of games. Four of their last five finished level, and they have not played a competitive game in 259 days, so rust is a real thing here. We are still backing Mali to find the goal that wins it.