Rwanda vs Liberia — Tips & Analysis

Rwanda -0.5: Rwanda are a hard team to beat at the Amahoro, and that is what this pick rests on. Across ten home games they have let in under a goal a game, winning five and tying two. Liberia give them little to fear. They have not won any of their five away games, tying two and losing three, and they score under a goal a game on the road. They let in nearly 2 goals a game overall, so they are not built to shut a game down either. Rwanda score just over a goal a game, which is modest. It should still be more than enough against a side that struggles to travel. Both teams have had a long break too. Rwanda have not played in 179 days and Liberia in 347, which points to a scrappy, low-quality opener. A 1-0 Rwanda win looks like the most likely finish, and that is enough for this pick. The caution is Rwanda's shortage of goals against real qualifying opposition. Their best home wins came against Grenada and Estonia in the FIFA Series. At home in qualifying they have had 0-1 to Benin, 1-1 with Lesotho, 0-2 to Nigeria and 2-1 over South Sudan. Liberia have also tied 1-1 at Equatorial Guinea and 2-2 at Malawi on recent away trips. We still want Rwanda to find the goal that wins it.