Sudan vs Ethiopia — Tips & Analysis

Ethiopia +0.75: Sudan do not really have a home game here. The war has pushed this one over the border to Juba in South Sudan, so there is no home crowd and no familiar ground to help them. Ethiopia are the better team. Sudan barely score. They have won just 2 of their last 16 games, tying 5 and losing 9, and they score less than a goal a game. They were shut out in six of their last ten, including a 0-0 with Mauritania and a 0-1 at Congo DR. They have also not won by 2 or more goals in any of those 16 games. Ethiopia have won 7 of their last 17 and 3 of their last 5, and they score just over a goal a game. They are not solid at the back though, letting in more than a goal a game, and well organised teams have kept them quiet. Both sides are rusty. Sudan have not played a competitive game in 265 days, Ethiopia in 178. Sudan's games average under 2 goals in total, so this shapes as a slow, scrappy first night of the group. A 0-1 Ethiopia win is the most likely finish, and that lands this pick. The worry is the history. Sudan have won 4 of the last 7 meetings, taking the last two 2-0 and 2-1. Those wins came in a competition for home-based players, so they may not carry into a full-squad qualifier. Ethiopia are still the side we want.