Vitória SC vs Casa Pia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Casa Pia have not scored a single league goal this season. They sit bottom with no points from four games, losing 0-1, 0-2, 0-7 and 0-1. A side that cannot score rarely takes part in a busy game. Vitória are hard to score against at their own ground. They have let in well under a goal a game there, so Casa Pia's best hope is one lucky moment. Vitória are not scoring freely either. They have one win in their last five, they score just over a goal a game, and they are missing Gui and Óscar Rivas up front. The history here is the clearest part of the case. The last 9 meetings have averaged under a goal a game in total, and only 3 of Vitória's last 11 games have had 3 or more goals. Casa Pia have been in just 4 such games in 17. It all points one way: a slow game that Vitória control and win with a single goal, most likely 1-0. Two honest warnings. Casa Pia won at Guimarães in May, so an early away goal would change the whole shape of this. Their 0-7 loss also shows they can fall apart, and a night like that would blow past our read. Vitória's blunt attack makes both of those unlikely, and we want the quiet game.