Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 — Tips & Analysis

Hamburger SV +0.25: This one is as even as a game gets. Hamburg and Mainz have met 18 times and the record is dead level, six wins each and six ties. Those games averaged more than 2 goals. Mainz look the stronger side, but the numbers dress them up. Their 2 goals a game lean on a 9-0 cup win at Krieschow, and their only league game so far was a 0-0 tie at home to Paderborn. They also travel light in the important areas. Nebel and Silas are out in attack, Martel and Kohr are missing from midfield, and Hollerbach is short of match fitness. That is four regulars gone from the spine of the team. Hamburg are hardly flying, but they have won three of their last five games. Both teams have had 8 days since their last game, so neither side arrives tired. A scrappy 1-1 is the most honest read, and an even game is exactly what we want here. The worry is Hamburg's own home form. They have won just one of their six home games, tying two and losing three. At their own ground they let in more than a goal a game. If the patched-up Mainz attack still functions, Hamburg have already shown they can be beaten at the Volksparkstadion. We still like Hamburg to hold their own here.