Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee — Tips & Analysis

Dundee +1.25: Hearts do not often win big. They have won by 2 or more in just 4 of their last 16 games, and two of their last three wins over Dundee were 1-0. Their back line is thin right now as well. Kingsley, Halkett, Borchgrevink and Fagan-Walcott are all listed as unavailable, and Hearts let in almost 2 goals a game across those 16 matches. There is a tiredness angle too. Hearts play on three days' rest after Thursday's Edinburgh derby, one day fewer than Dundee, at the end of a run with two European ties in it. Dundee should get on the board. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won eight of their last 15, with 9 of those 15 games having 3 or more goals. Hearts' games have gone past 3 goals on average too. That points to an open, stretched game, and a 2-1 Hearts win is the likeliest score. A one goal game is what this pick is built around. The honest warnings are plain. Hearts have been excellent at Tynecastle, winning five and tying two of eight home games. They score more than 2 goals a game there. Dundee's best numbers are made at home, and on the road they have won only two of seven. One of those recent Hearts wins was a 4-0, which shows how fast this can run away. We still expect Dundee to keep it close.