Birmingham vs Wolves — Tips & Analysis

Birmingham +0.25: Birmingham keep games tight and they rarely get beaten badly. They have lost by 2 or more just once in their last 15 games. They have also tied six of those 15, including three of their last five. Their games have turned slow and low scoring. Only 6 of Birmingham's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and they score just over a goal a game. Wolves are the better side on paper, but they are a different team away from home. They have won only two of eight away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Their back line is patched up as well. Bellegarde, Mosquera, Said and Trippier are all out, so a new look defense has to hold up here. Birmingham are short too. Bird, Gardner-Hickman and Leonard are all missing from midfield, so they will not suddenly start playing open football. That points to a crowded afternoon with few clear chances, decided by a set piece at either end. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and an even game suits us well. The honest worry is the Wolves attack. They have won three of their last five, they score more than a goal a game, and they have won by 2 or more four times in 15. If they land an early goal, Birmingham's makeshift midfield may not have the legs to chase it. We still trust Birmingham to stay in this one.