Tips — Monday, 7 September 2026

💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that suits a narrow home win. Cagliari get under a goal a game, Lecce the same, and Lecce manage only 1 goal a game across nine away games. One goal is likely to decide this. Cagliari have won 6 of their last 16 and put three straight wins together. They then lost 1-0 to Inter and went out of the cup at home to Verona. They have already won 1-0 at Parma this season, so they know how to grind out this kind of result. Lecce arrive without Willem Geubbels, their main summer signing, after he hurt his ankle against Roma. An untested replacement comes in for him. Lecce have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15, so they can fold once they go behind. Expect a cautious night with plenty of nothing and few clear chances. A 1-0 Cagliari win looks the most likely result, and that lands this pick. The worry is how often these two share the points. Cagliari have tied 5 of the last 12 meetings, so we need the hosts to actually win this one. Yerry Mina is a doubt with a calf problem, and Cagliari come in on 4 days rest to Lecce's 7. We still make the hosts the side to be on.

💬 Djurgarden are the form team in Sweden right now. Their last three games finished 2-0, 4-0 and 3-0, so nine scored and none let in. They have won 11 of their last 19, score more than 2 goals a game and let in a goal a game. They also win big often, with a margin of 2 or more in 8 of those 19. Their travelling record is the key number: six wins from nine away trips. Kalmar are a tougher test than 13th place suggests. They have won 5 of 8 at the Guldfageln Arena and score more than a goal a game there. But they were taken apart 0-4 at home by Hammarby last month, and they have won only 6 of their last 18 overall. Djurgarden sit 3rd on 35 points, Kalmar 13th on 19. The history is one sided too. Kalmar have lost 14 of the last 20 meetings between them, and those games have averaged more than 3 goals. Kalmar should get on the scoresheet, but Djurgarden have too much in the final third to be pegged back. A 1-2 away win looks the most likely result, and that lands this pick. The risk is the schedule. Djurgarden play on four days rest to Kalmar's nine, and heavy legs show up late in a season. We are still with the visitors.

💬 IFK Goteborg do not play quiet games on the road. Across eight away trips they have scored more than 2 goals a game and let in more than 2 as well. On top of that, 11 of their last 18 games reached 3 goals or more. This is a side that drags games open. Mjallby help with that. They let in almost 2 goals a game and have won only 2 of their last 16. Their defending has been stretched all year, and 8 of their last 16 games also reached 3 goals. Mjallby have not scored in four straight, but that run came against Djurgarden twice and Red Bull Salzburg twice. Those are far better sides than IFK, and this is a much kinder test in front of goal. IFK are missing five players, including the suspended Bergmark-Wiberg and playmaker Mucolli, so they are not as far ahead as the table says. The honest read is a cagey 1-1, and this wants more than that. Two open sides, tired legs and shaky defending give us a fair chance of the busier game. The real warning is the history. The last five meetings produced only seven goals in total, so these two do know how to keep it tight. We still want the busier game.

💬 Sabadell games do not produce goals. Their three league games this season finished 0-0, 0-0 and 1-0. Across their last 13 games the total has averaged about 2 goals, and only 4 of those 13 reached 3 goals. That is the pattern we are backing. Sabadell have made a solid start back in the second tier. They let in under a goal a game, and at their own ground they have won 4 of 6 and been tighter still at the back. They make chances without finishing them, so they control games rather than blow them open. Cordoba are the other part of the case. They sit 19th in the relegation places with 3 points from 3 games. They score more than a goal a game. But they have been beaten 1-3 by Granada and 2-3 at Burgos in their last three. They also let in more than a goal a game on the road. A team that low on belief usually goes quiet away from home rather than trading punches. Both sides come in rested, with over a week since their last game, so expect a controlled night. A 2-0 Sabadell win looks the likely result, and that lands this pick. The warning is Cordoba's habit of turning up in busy games. 9 of their last 14 had 3 goals or more. We still expect Sabadell to keep this quiet.

💬 Nancy do not play in high scoring games. They have scored three goals in four league games this season, with results of 2-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0. Four of their six away trips finished level, and they let in under a goal a game on the road. They are the most careful travelling side in the division, and they set the tone here. Nantes are in real trouble, but they are not a wild attacking team either. They sit bottom of Ligue 2 with a single point from four games, and they have won 1 of their last 15. They score under a goal a game. A side this low on belief, playing under a manager who arrived three games into the season, is more likely to play it safe than throw bodies forward. The three earlier meetings between these two averaged 2 goals. Both teams also come in fresh, with well over a week off, so tired legs should not open the game up. Expect Nantes to have the ball and Nancy to sit deep and frustrate them. A 1-1 tie looks the likely result, and that lands this pick. The clear warning is the Nantes defending. They have let in eight goals in their last two games, losing 2-5 at home to Rodez and tying 3-3 at Guingamp. If that version turns up, this goes wrong fast. We still expect a quiet night.

💬 Real Sociedad have forgotten how to win. They have won just 1 of their last 13 games and tied 7 of them. On the road it is worse, with no win in seven away trips, 4 ties and 3 defeats. That is the case for backing Elche to stay in this one. Elche sit 19th in the table, but their home form does not match that. They have won 4 of their 6 home games. They are also the fresher side. Elche have had 10 days since their last game, and Sociedad have had 4 since playing Celta Vigo. Elche are set to line up with a back five, a shape built to block space rather than trade chances. Sociedad are without Odriozola at the back, so they have their own problems to sort out. Add it up and a 1-1 tie looks the most likely result, which is what we want here. The history is the worry. Elche have won just 1 of the last 12 meetings between these two and lost 9 of them, so Sociedad usually find a way in this game. Elche also let in almost 2 goals a game, and one soft goal changes the whole afternoon. We are still happy to back Elche to hold their ground.