Tips — Tuesday, 6 October 2026

💬 The Faroe Islands do not lose games by much, and they have just proved it against Kazakhstan. These two met in Torshavn on 26 September and finished 1-1. In the last 2 meetings Kazakhstan have not beaten them at all, with one tie and one Faroes win. Those two games averaged more than a goal in total, so there is very little between these teams. The Faroes have tied all three of their Nations League games 1-1. They are hard to score against, letting in under a goal a game, and they have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 15. Kazakhstan are the side under pressure. They sit bottom of the group with one point from three games and badly need a home win. Astana has been their one strong point, where they have let in under a goal a game across seven home games. They only score just over a goal a game, so they are not about to run away with this. Here is the honest part. A 1-0 Kazakhstan win is the likeliest single score, and that beats this pick. We need the Faroes to leave Astana without losing. Their away scoring is the worry, under a goal a game across nine trips, so a narrow home win is very much live. But a team tying 1-1 over and over is the one you want in a game this tight, and we are with the Faroes.

💬 This final puts the two hardest teams to score against in the tournament in the same game. Saudi Arabia have not let in a goal all competition, 390 minutes across four games. They beat Kuwait 1-0, Oman 3-0 and Iraq 2-0, then tied 0-0 with Qatar. They score just over a goal a game, let in under one, and their games have almost 2 goals in them on average. The UAE are built the same way. They have let in one goal in four games here, and they tie a lot, with 7 ties in their last 16 games. The history says the same thing. These two have met seven times recently and those games averaged 2 goals in total, with the last one finishing 0-0. Tired legs point the same way. Both sides played their semi-finals three days ago, and Saudi Arabia's went to extra time and penalties. Neither team created much to get here, and Saudi Arabia barely made a chance against Qatar. A 1-0 in Jeddah, off a set piece or a scrappy break, is how this reads, and that is the low-scoring final we want. There are two real warnings. 8 of the UAE's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, so they can open up when a game asks for it. A final can also run past 90 minutes, and only the 90 minutes count here. We are still on the quiet game.

💬 Spain do not need a high-scoring game to win this, and that is the heart of the case. They have not lost in 15 games, with 13 wins and 2 ties, and they let in less than a goal a game. Their own games average almost 3 goals in total, because they keep the ball, slow things down and score when they want to. Spain already beat this Croatia side 4-1 a week ago, so they have nothing to prove. Croatia arrive in pieces. England put 7 past them three days ago, and they sit third in the group with a goal difference of minus 9. Erlic and Juranovic are injured, Baturina is ill, and late call ups have had to come in. Croatia have created very little across their last five games. A team in that state looks after itself first. Neither side is at home here, so the football decides it. A 0-2 for Spain is the likely end, and a game that size keeps us comfortable. The honest worry is the history between these two. Their last eight meetings averaged almost 4 goals, and the most recent one was a 4-1. Croatia's own games are busy as well, with 12 of their last 16 having 3 or more goals. We think a bruised Croatia and a professional Spain give us the calmer game.

💬 England are scoring at a rate that makes this game hard to keep quiet. They put 7 past Croatia three days ago, they score 3 goals a game across their last 15, and their games average 4 goals in total. 10 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. The other side of England is that they let in goals too, a goal a game. This run includes a 6-4 against France and a 2-3 against Spain. Czechia will get chances. They are bottom of the group with no points from three games, but they score more than a goal a game. They have also found the net in four of their last six. Their own games are busy, with 10 of their last 16 having 3 or more goals and just over 3 goals in them on average. Czechia lose Krejci to suspension too, which weakens a back line that already lets in more than a goal a game. Put it together and 3-1 to England is the likely end, which is the busy game we want. The doubts are fair ones. England are well placed in the group and may rest players against the bottom side. The same game in Prague a week ago finished 2-0, and the last four meetings averaged almost 3 goals. We still back England to pile up enough goals here.

💬 These two tied 0-0 in Helsinki a week ago, and this one has the same shape. That is why we want Belarus with a head start. Belarus are stubborn rather than good. They have tied 5 of their last 12 games, including a 0-0 with Greece and a 2-2 away to Denmark. They barely score, under a goal a game, but they make games awful to play in. Finland are the better team and will have most of the ball. They have still won only 6 of their last 16 games, and their big attacking numbers lean on one night, a 7-0 against San Marino. Across that run they score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. The two meetings between these sides averaged 1 goal in total. Belarus have a man in form too in Kontsevoi, who scored twice when they put four past San Marino three days ago. There is no real home crowd for Belarus, who play this one in Budapest. Finland lead the group, and a point would suit them well enough. A 1-1 is the likely end, and that result is fine for us. The worry is that better sides have taken Belarus apart, 0-6 against Denmark and 1-5 against Greece in this run. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 12, so one early Finland goal could change the night. We are still backing Belarus to stay in it.

💬 Neither of these teams scores enough to make this a busy game. Slovakia are much the better side, but they are a slow, careful team on their travels, scoring under a goal a game in seven away games. Only 5 of Slovakia's last 15 games have had 3 or more goals, and they tied 1-1 in the Faroe Islands four days ago. Moldova are worse again in front of goal. They have lost four of their last five home games and score under a goal a game there. They will sit deep at Zimbru and hope to stay in it. Their big goals average comes almost entirely from a 1-11 beating in Norway. Take that out and their recent games read 0-2, 1-1 and 2-1. These two met ten days ago in Bratislava and Slovakia won 2-0. Slovakia are also without Laszlo Benes and Matus Bero, and Vladimir Weiss is expected to change his team. A 1-0 win for Slovakia is the likeliest shape here, and a game like that lands this pick with room to spare. The real danger is Moldova's defending. They let in 3 goals a game at home, so one early goal could turn this into a chase. Moldova sit second and want to protect that spot, and a Moldova side pushing forward is how this gets busy. We still back the quiet game.

💬 Estonia have turned themselves into a wall, and that is the case for a quiet night in Tallinn. They have not lost in five games, with four clean sheets. They beat Luxembourg 1-0 three days ago, and tied 0-0 with Bulgaria and 1-1 with Iceland before that. The 1-0 wins over Lithuania and the Faroe Islands go back to June. They barely score, under a goal a game, and they have not managed more than one goal in any of those five. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 7 of their last 18 had 3 or more. Iceland are the better team but they travel badly. They have won 3 and lost 4 on the road in this run, and their goals come mostly at home. Iceland are short of attackers as well, with Gudmundsson and Thordarson hurt and Ellertsson suspended. The two meetings between these sides both finished 1-1, the last one in Iceland only ten days ago, and those games had 2 goals in total. Another 1-1 is the likely end, and that is a score we are happy with. Now the warning. Iceland have won their last two 3-0 against Bulgaria and Luxembourg, and 9 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. Estonia also lose their captain Karol Mets to suspension, and Karl Hein has left camp, so the defence that kept those clean sheets is being rebuilt. We still expect a tight, low-scoring game.

💬 Luxembourg cannot score, and that is the case for Bulgaria here. The hosts did not score in either of their last two games, losing 0-1 at Estonia and 0-3 at home to Iceland. Luxembourg score under a goal a game and have won only one of their last seven games at their own ground. They also almost never win big. Just 2 of their last 14 games ended in a win by 2 or more goals. Bulgaria are bottom of the group on one point and have scored once in three group games, so they offer very little going the other way. What they do have is history on their side. Luxembourg have won only one of the last six meetings between these two. Those six games averaged just over 2 goals, and three of the last five finished with one goal or fewer. Both sides come in on three days rest, which points to another tight, scrappy game. The honest read is a narrow 1-0 Luxembourg win, and that score would beat this pick. So we need Bulgaria to stay in the game and keep this close, and a Luxembourg side this short of goals gives them a real chance. The warning is clear. Luxembourg won the reverse game 2-1 in Sofia only ten days ago, and Bulgaria have lost by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 16. We still want Bulgaria here.

💬 Macedonia rarely get taken apart, and that is the case for them keeping this close. Switzerland have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 15, so the margin is the whole question. Macedonia have lost by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 15. Fewer than 4 goals landed in 12 of those 15 games. They also let in almost 2 goals a game in away matches, so they lose on the road without being taken apart. Switzerland score just over 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game, and they have won 10 of their last 15. The catch is that their scorelines have been better than their football. They have put up 3-0, 3-0 and 2-1 lately without making many chances. Switzerland's own games have reached 4 goals only 4 times in their last 15. They have nine points from three games and a five point lead, so the group is as good as won. There is little reason for them to chase a fourth goal in Lucerne. A 2-0 Switzerland win looks the likeliest outcome, and that keeps this pick safe. The danger is real. Macedonia have lost five in a row and let in 18 goals in that run, including a 1-7 night in Wales. Switzerland also beat them 3-0 in Skopje ten days ago, and another three-goal win is the shape this pick does not want. We still think Macedonia stay in touch.

💬 Slovenia hardly ever score, and that is why Scotland are our pick of the game. Slovenia have won just 3 of their last 14 games and score under a goal a game, and they are even quieter on the road. In away games they have won once in their last seven. They have also won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14. They do not travel to win games, they travel to stop them. Scotland have won 7 of their last 14 and have been making far more chances than Slovenia over their recent games. Second place in the group is on the line and both teams sit level on four points, so Scotland have to force this at Hampden. Slovenia are also without Benjamin Sesko, their first choice striker, which leaves Sporar or Vipotnik up front and even less bite than usual. A 1-0 Scotland win is the likeliest outcome, and one goal is all this pick needs. The worry is obvious. Slovenia have tied 7 of their last 14 games and held Scotland to a 0-0 in Ljubljana ten days ago. A blank, frustrating night is very much live. Scotland also lost 0-3 at home to Switzerland a week ago, which shows they can have a flat evening. We still think Scotland find a way through.

💬 There are very few goals in either of these teams. Angola have tied four of their last five, and three of those games finished 0-0, including a goalless night away at Egypt. Their games average just over 2 goals in total and they let in under a goal a game. They keep things tight even when they cannot find a winner. Malawi are built the same way. They score under a goal a game in away matches. They have had fewer than 3 goals in 9 of their last 13 games, and fewer than 4 in 12 of 13. The one time these two met, Angola won 1-0. Neither side has played for 11 days, and Malawi coach Kalisto Pasuwa has brought three new faces into a 24 man squad. That points to a slow, careful qualifier in Luanda rather than an open one. A 1-0 Angola win is the likeliest outcome, and a game like that lands this pick with room to spare. The one thing that could spoil it is the table. Angola sit third on one point and need a home win to chase Egypt, so they cannot sit back, and Zito Luvumbo looks likely to be fit again. If Angola go ahead early, Malawi have to come out, and that is when a third goal arrives. We still expect a quiet night.

💬 St Vincent are simply the better team, and they proved it three days ago by beating Sint Maarten 4-2 at this very ground. The whole group is being played centrally in Belmopan, so neither side is at home and this comes down to quality alone. St Vincent have that. They have won 8 of their last 13 games, won all three of their group matches, and score just over 2 goals a game. Sint Maarten have little to stop them with. They let in more than 2 goals a game across their last 20, in which they won 7, tied 2 and lost 11. They have also lost their last three. This is also a third game in eight days for both squads, and tired legs tend to hurt the weaker side more. A 3-1 St Vincent win is the likeliest outcome, and a 2 goal win like that is enough for this pick. The caution is genuine. St Vincent have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 13 games. Their other two group wins were a 1-0 over Belize and a 2-1 over French Guyana. Sint Maarten's away games are the better half of their season. They let in almost 2 goals a game in them, so they are tougher than their overall record looks. We still back St Vincent to have too much.

💬 These two teams cannot score against each other. The last two meetings produced one goal in total. It was 0-0 in Antigua last November and a 1-0 Aruba win in Oranjestad on 23 September. Antigua's home games are usually tight and slow. They have won only one of their last ten games at this ground and tied four of them, and they score just over a goal a game there. Aruba arrive on a five-game winning run, but look at who it came against. Two of those wins were over Anguilla, and the others came against Antigua, Liechtenstein and Macau. None of them is a real test. Aruba also have a problem tonight. They beat Anguilla 3-2 on 4 October and have had only 2 days rest, against 5 days for the hosts. Tired legs in a slow, physical game rarely add up to a goal rush. The last 5 meetings averaged more than 2 goals in total, and a 1-1 fits this one neatly. That score keeps this pick safe. The worry is the bigger picture. Antigua's games have 3 goals in total on average, and 11 of their last 19 had 3 or more. Aruba's games are busier again. So the wider picture says goals, but the games between these two keep saying no. We will stay with the quiet night.

💬 These two played each other three days ago and French Guyana won 2-0, with nothing at all in the first half. That game tells you most of what you need. This series does not produce goals. The 9 meetings between them average just over 2 goals in total, and only three of those games had 3 or more. French Guyana have won their last two games 2-0 and 1-0 without ever having to open up. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game, so they do not trade punches. Belize are the bigger reason to expect a quiet night. They have not scored in either of their last two games, losing 0-2 to French Guyana and 0-1 to St Vincent. They have also lost four of their last five. A team this short of confidence in front of goal makes for a slow, careful game. Both sides play on three days rest, in the second of two games against each other. Tired legs and changed teams point the same way. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest shape, and that keeps this pick well clear. The caution is Belize on the road. They are much better away from home, with 5 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses, and they score almost 2 goals a game in those games. Their games also tend to be busy, with just over 3 goals in total on average. We still want the quiet one.