Belarus vs Finland — Tips & Analysis

Belarus +0.5: These two tied 0-0 in Helsinki a week ago, and this one has the same shape. That is why we want Belarus with a head start. Belarus are stubborn rather than good. They have tied 5 of their last 12 games, including a 0-0 with Greece and a 2-2 away to Denmark. They barely score, under a goal a game, but they make games awful to play in. Finland are the better team and will have most of the ball. They have still won only 6 of their last 16 games, and their big attacking numbers lean on one night, a 7-0 against San Marino. Across that run they score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. The two meetings between these sides averaged 1 goal in total. Belarus have a man in form too in Kontsevoi, who scored twice when they put four past San Marino three days ago. There is no real home crowd for Belarus, who play this one in Budapest. Finland lead the group, and a point would suit them well enough. A 1-1 is the likely end, and that result is fine for us. The worry is that better sides have taken Belarus apart, 0-6 against Denmark and 1-5 against Greece in this run. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 12, so one early Finland goal could change the night. We are still backing Belarus to stay in it.