Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: These two teams cannot score against each other. The last two meetings produced one goal in total. It was 0-0 in Antigua last November and a 1-0 Aruba win in Oranjestad on 23 September. Antigua's home games are usually tight and slow. They have won only one of their last ten games at this ground and tied four of them, and they score just over a goal a game there. Aruba arrive on a five-game winning run, but look at who it came against. Two of those wins were over Anguilla, and the others came against Antigua, Liechtenstein and Macau. None of them is a real test. Aruba also have a problem tonight. They beat Anguilla 3-2 on 4 October and have had only 2 days rest, against 5 days for the hosts. Tired legs in a slow, physical game rarely add up to a goal rush. The last 5 meetings averaged more than 2 goals in total, and a 1-1 fits this one neatly. That score keeps this pick safe. The worry is the bigger picture. Antigua's games have 3 goals in total on average, and 11 of their last 19 had 3 or more. Aruba's games are busier again. So the wider picture says goals, but the games between these two keep saying no. We will stay with the quiet night.