Luxembourg vs Bulgaria — Tips & Analysis

Bulgaria +0.5: Luxembourg cannot score, and that is the case for Bulgaria here. The hosts did not score in either of their last two games, losing 0-1 at Estonia and 0-3 at home to Iceland. Luxembourg score under a goal a game and have won only one of their last seven games at their own ground. They also almost never win big. Just 2 of their last 14 games ended in a win by 2 or more goals. Bulgaria are bottom of the group on one point and have scored once in three group games, so they offer very little going the other way. What they do have is history on their side. Luxembourg have won only one of the last six meetings between these two. Those six games averaged just over 2 goals, and three of the last five finished with one goal or fewer. Both sides come in on three days rest, which points to another tight, scrappy game. The honest read is a narrow 1-0 Luxembourg win, and that score would beat this pick. So we need Bulgaria to stay in the game and keep this close, and a Luxembourg side this short of goals gives them a real chance. The warning is clear. Luxembourg won the reverse game 2-1 in Sofia only ten days ago, and Bulgaria have lost by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 16. We still want Bulgaria here.