Angola vs Malawi — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: There are very few goals in either of these teams. Angola have tied four of their last five, and three of those games finished 0-0, including a goalless night away at Egypt. Their games average just over 2 goals in total and they let in under a goal a game. They keep things tight even when they cannot find a winner. Malawi are built the same way. They score under a goal a game in away matches. They have had fewer than 3 goals in 9 of their last 13 games, and fewer than 4 in 12 of 13. The one time these two met, Angola won 1-0. Neither side has played for 11 days, and Malawi coach Kalisto Pasuwa has brought three new faces into a 24 man squad. That points to a slow, careful qualifier in Luanda rather than an open one. A 1-0 Angola win is the likeliest outcome, and a game like that lands this pick with room to spare. The one thing that could spoil it is the table. Angola sit third on one point and need a home win to chase Egypt, so they cannot sit back, and Zito Luvumbo looks likely to be fit again. If Angola go ahead early, Malawi have to come out, and that is when a third goal arrives. We still expect a quiet night.