Tips — Monday, 5 October 2026

💬 Vietnam have owned this matchup and nothing suggests that has changed. They have won the last three meetings, 2-0 and 2-0 in August and 3-1 in March. They also lead the last 14 meetings 11 wins to 2. Vietnam are in fine shape right now. They have won 12 of their last 15 games and lost only one, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in less than one. On the road they have won 6 of their last 7 and barely let in a goal. Malaysia are a tough side to beat. They have won 10 of their last 16 games and let in less than a goal a game. They also held Indonesia to a 0-0 in this tournament. That is why we see control here rather than a hammering. The whole tournament is being played in Indonesia, so neither side is at home and Malaysia get no crowd behind them. Vietnam are simply the better team and should have enough for this. We read this as a 0-1 Vietnam win, and that does the job for this pick. The risk is the occasion. A third place play-off invites changed teams and a flat game, and Malaysia defend well enough to win a tight one themselves. We are still with Vietnam here.

💬 Games between these two give you goals. Their last 9 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals in total, and 7 of those 9 had 3 or more goals in them. Thailand are the main reason to expect more of the same. They have won 6 of their last 7 away games, scoring more than 3 goals a game. They rested most of their first team for a dead game against the Philippines and lost it 2-1. Those regulars all come back for this final. Indonesia will have a go at this too. They score almost 2 goals a game, and more than 2 a game at home, where they have won 6 of their last 9. Thom Haye is available again after his suspension, which helps them keep the ball and get up the pitch. Indonesia also let in more than a goal a game, and 8 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. A full house in Jakarta should make for a lively start. We read this as a 1-2 Thailand win, and that clears this pick. The worry is that finals often tighten up. Indonesia were held to a 0-0 by Malaysia in the group, so they can keep a big game quiet. A tight 1-0 either way would beat this. We still want the goals here.

💬 Latvia barely score, and that is the heart of this one. They score less than a goal a game across their last 18 games, and even less on the road. They have not scored in two of their last three. Latvia's games average just 2 goals in total, and only 6 of their last 18 had 3 or more goals in them. They have not won by 2 or more goals once in those 18 games. These two met in Riga a week ago and it finished 0-0. Both meetings between them have averaged 1 goal in total. Cyprus do not blow teams away either. They score more than a goal a game at home, where they have won 3 of their last 6. They also lose Kostas Pileas to suspension after his red card against Armenia, so the team gets reshuffled. Latvia are short at the back too, with Antonijs Cernomordijs suspended and Roberts Savalnieks injured. They will sit deep and try to survive. We read this as a 1-0 Cyprus win, and that is comfortable for this pick. The caution is Cyprus's own games. 8 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals, and they let in more than a goal a game, so they do not keep everything tidy. They also need points to hold second place, which could have them chasing a second goal. We still expect a quiet night.

💬 Cordoba are not a side that beats anyone by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in none of their last 14 games, and they have lost 4 of their last 5. Tenerife do not need to win here. They just need to stay close, and Cordoba rarely push a game out of reach. Cordoba sit in the relegation places with 6 points from 7 games and a goal difference of minus 6. They let in almost 2 goals a game. Tenerife are the steadier team. They have won 6 and tied 4 of their last 14 games. They let in just over a goal a game, the better back line of the two. The worry is the travel. Tenerife have one win in seven on the road and they were beaten 0-5 at Castellon last month. Both teams come in fresh, with over a week since their last game, and that suits a careful, scrappy night. We expect 1-1, with Cordoba pushing hard but controlling little. That score is enough for this pick. The caution is the history between them. Cordoba have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with Tenerife, so the form book is not the whole story here. Tenerife's road numbers are poor too. Even so, staying in touch is a low bar, and we are happy to take it.

💬 Belgium do not get beaten heavily. They have lost by 2 or more goals in none of their last 16 games, and France have never needed a big win to see them off. The last 6 meetings all went France's way, and the most recent five were 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0 and 3-2. France are missing a lot for this one. Kylian Mbappe is out with a knee injury, Dayot Upamecano is suspended and Ibrahima Konate has gone home hurt, which leaves a patched up back line. France still let in under a goal a game, so this is a strong defence, just not the usual one. Belgium have won 10 and tied 4 of their last 16 games, and they let in under a goal a game as well. Their trouble is creating. Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both suspended and Leandro Trossard has a heel problem, so their best passers are all absent. Two careful teams, three days after their last game, points to a slow night in Paris. The 6 meetings before this one averaged just over 2 goals. We see 1-1, and that is a clean result for this pick. The risk is France's top gear. They have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 16 games, so a weakened Belgium midfield could be picked apart. We will still take Belgium to stay in this game.

💬 Türkiye have been stripped of their attack, and a side that cannot score keeps the goals down. Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz are both suspended. Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are injured, and first choice goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir is banned as well. Türkiye have not scored in 2 of their last 3 games, losing 0-1 to France and 0-3 to Belgium. They sit bottom of their group on 0 points with a goal difference of minus 7. Italy are the stronger side, and they are shuffling their team too. Ten players were left behind at Coverciano, and Dimarco, Cristante and Locatelli are all out hurt. Italy have won 10 and tied 3 of their last 18 games, so they know how to take charge of a night like this. A patched up Italy against a Türkiye short of goals points to control, not a shootout. Both play a third game in eight days on three days of rest, which tends to slow a game down. We see Italy 2-0, built early and then managed out, and that keeps the total low. The warning is the recent history. Italy beat this Türkiye 4-1 on 28 September. The last 4 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals, so this is not a quiet pairing by nature. We still expect a game Italy run rather than race.

💬 Neither of these teams can find the net right now. Ukraine and Hungary have each scored exactly one goal across their three Nations League games. Ukraine have gone 1-0, 0-0 and 0-3, so two of those three games produced almost nothing. They score just over a goal a game and they are now without Danylo Sikan and Mykola Matviyenko, both suspended. Hungary are just as quiet in front of goal, scoring just over a goal a game, and they are missing Barnabas Varga and Roland Sallai. Their own three games read 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0. These two met only ten days ago in Budapest, and Ukraine won it 1-0 with a single goal in the whole match. This one is in Trnava, Slovakia, so Ukraine are not really at home either. Both sides have had just 3 days since their last game, which rarely helps an attack. We read this as another 1-0 Ukraine win, and a night that stays quiet. The caution is Ukraine's defending. They were beaten 0-3 by Northern Ireland three days ago, and 8 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. A reshuffled team could change the shape of this. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.

💬 Northern Ireland do their scoring at Windsor Park. They have averaged almost 2 goals a game across their last six home games. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 13. Georgia give up plenty on the road. They let in almost 2 goals a game away from home, and they have won once in their last six away trips. Their games are rarely quiet either. Georgia have had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 14 games. The other side of this is real. Northern Ireland have let in one goal in total across their last six home games, and Georgia have not scored in their last three. That is why the single most likely score is a 1-0 Northern Ireland win, and a 1-0 is not enough for this pick. We need one more goal, and we think it comes. Dan Ballard is out with a hamstring injury and two more defenders are doubtful, so this back line is weaker than the one that shut Georgia out. The only meeting between these two was a 1-0 won by a 99th minute Shea Charles goal, so nothing says this has to stay that tight. Be clear on the danger. Northern Ireland have had fewer than 3 goals in 8 of their last 13 games, and fewer than 2 in five of them. This is a close call, but we lean to a second goal arriving.

💬 Both teams come in short of attacking help, and that is the case for a quiet night. Poland are without Robert Lewandowski, who is suspended and has already left camp. Bosnia are starting again without Edin Dzeko, who played his farewell game, and Kerim Alajbegovic is hurt too. These two met in Poland ten days ago and finished 0-0. Bosnia are built to grind. They have tied 7 of their last 16 games, and at home they have won 4, tied 2 and lost 1, letting in a goal a game. Poland have been patchy on their travels, losing 4 of their 7 away games in this run. The last 3 meetings between them averaged 2 goals in total, so there is no history of fireworks here either. Both sides play a third game in eight days on three days of rest, and tired legs tend to make games slower, not wilder. We read this as a 1-0 Bosnia win, decided by one goal and short of clear chances. That keeps the total down. The honest worry is Poland's last outing. They put six past Romania three days ago, so a team that has just found its shooting boots could break this open even without its main striker. Both sides still have promotion and relegation to play for, which could push one of them forward late. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 Both back lines here are leaking badly, and that is the heart of this one. Romania have let in 12 goals in their three Nations League games, losing 1-2 at Sweden, 2-4 at home to Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0-6 in Poland. They are bottom of the group with nothing left to protect, so they will go after this. Romania score just over 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. They also lose centre back Radu Dragusin to suspension, which hardly helps a defence already in trouble. Sweden are not tight either. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Alexander Isak is out, along with Carl Starfelt and Emil Holm, so their team is patched up at both ends. Romania are strong in Bucharest, where they have won 5 of their last 7 and score almost 3 goals a game. Put an open home side against a weakened visiting one and the goals should come. We read this as a 2-2, and that is enough for this pick. The warning is history. The last 4 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, so these games have been quiet before. Even so, we want the busier game here.

💬 Montenegro's games keep turning into open ones, and that is the case here. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 14 games, and the last 5 meetings with Armenia averaged 4 goals in total. Montenegro have won all three of their Nations League games, 2-1 at Latvia, 3-2 at Armenia and 2-1 against Cyprus. They let in a goal in every one. They are no scoring machine. They manage just over a goal a game and they let in almost 2 a game, which is the mix that produces busy, untidy football. Armenia are the soft side at the back. They let in more than 2 goals a game and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games. They did score twice in Yerevan when these two met on 28 September, a 3-2 with goals at both ends. Montenegro will miss Sead Haksabanovic and Adam Marusic through injury, which does not help them control a game. Both teams are back out after only three days of rest, and tired defending usually helps the goals along. We read this as 2-1 Montenegro, with Armenia getting on the board again, and that is enough here. The caution is Armenia on their travels. They have scored only four goals in their six away games in this run, so a flat night from them could keep this low. We still want the goals.

💬 Cuba are the steadier team here and they have the tighter defence of the two. They have not lost in their last five games, going 3-3, 2-0, 3-0, 1-1 and 2-2. They let in just over a goal a game across their last 17. Cuba have won 6, tied 6 and lost 5 of those 17 games, and they score more than a goal a game. St. Kitts and Nevis are far more open. They score almost 2 goals a game but let in more than 2, and on their travels it gets worse. They let in more than 3 goals a game away from home and have lost three of their last five away games. This one is at the Hasely Crawford Stadium in Port of Spain, so neither side is at home. That takes Cuba away from the ground where much of their record was built. Even so, Cuba should hold the ball for long spells against a team happy to swap goals. We read this as a 2-1 Cuba win, which is enough for this pick. The warning is fresh. These two tied 3-3 only three days ago, and in their last 3 meetings Cuba have won 1, tied 1 and lost 1. St. Kitts will get chances. Cuba are still the better side here and we are with them.

💬 Goals have been hard to come by for both of these teams. Martinique's games have had just over 2 goals in them on average, and El Salvador's are the same. The 5 meetings between them averaged almost 2 goals, which is quieter still. Martinique score under a goal a game and have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 18. They did beat Honduras 2-1 at Stade Pierre-Aliker two days ago, so they arrive with something. They have never been a side that runs up a score, though. El Salvador are in a bad way. They barely score, with under a goal a game across nine away trips. Their last two games ended 0-6 in Guatemala and 0-2 at home to Jamaica. Both teams played on 3 October, so each has had only 2 days to recover. Tired legs in a game neither side can afford to lose usually mean a careful night with few clear chances. We read this as a 1-0 Martinique win, and that keeps this pick well clear. The risk is the recent history. El Salvador won 3-1 at home on 26 September, so these two can produce goals once a game opens up. One early goal would change the whole shape of it. We still expect a quiet, low scoring game.

💬 These two met three days ago and produced a five goal game, so we know what this matchup gives. Grenada edged that one 3-2, the only meeting on record between them. Grenada's games are rarely quiet. 9 of their last 10 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games average almost 4 goals in total. They also let in more than 2 goals a game. Grenada have been taken apart repeatedly this year, losing 0-3 to St Kitts, 0-3 to Cuba, 0-3 to Kenya and 0-4 to Rwanda. Bonaire are not built to keep a game tight either. They have lost 13 of their last 18 games and let in almost 2 goals a game. 12 of those 18 games had 3 or more goals in them. Bonaire did score twice in the first meeting, so they can hurt this Grenada back line. Grenada have moved their games to Port of Spain because of their own pitch, so neither side is at home here. We read this as a 2-1 Grenada win, and that is enough for this pick. The caution is Bonaire's attack. They score only just over a goal a game, so plenty rests on Grenada scoring again. If Bonaire sit deep in a rematch, this can stay quiet. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Suriname were the better team in the first game and they get another go at it. These two played out a 0-0 in Paramaribo on 2 October, and Suriname had most of the ball and most of the chances. Guatemala keeper Kenderson Navarro made eight saves to keep that one level. Guatemala are nothing special at this ground. They have won 2 of their 5 home games and lost 3, and they score more than a goal a game overall. They went into the first game without Darwin Lom and Oscar Santis, two of their main attacking men. Suriname are the steadier of the two. They have won 8 and tied 6 of their last 20 games, and they let in just over a goal a game. They travel well, with 3 wins and 3 ties from their 10 away games. The last 3 meetings between these sides averaged 2 goals in total, so there is very little between them. We read this as a 1-1, which lands on the right side of this pick. The risk is Guatemala getting a goal in front at home. They have won one of the last three meetings, and a narrow home win beats this. We are still happy to back Suriname to come out of this unbeaten.

💬 These two met a week ago and Honduras won it 1-0, and this one has been a quiet matchup for years. The last 8 meetings between them averaged 2 goals in total, and only 3 of those 8 had 3 or more goals in them. Honduras are very hard to score against on this ground. They have won 6 of their last 8 home games and let in less than a goal a game there. Jamaica are missing a big chunk of their attack. Leon Bailey is out with an ankle problem, along with Andre Brooks and Keinan Davis, and Renaldo Cephas is a doubt. Jamaica do not need to open up to get what they want either. They have won 6 of the last 8 meetings with Honduras, so a tight game suits them fine. Their games average more than 2 goals in total, and only 5 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals. We read this as a 1-1, and that sits on the right side of this pick. The warning is the shape Honduras are in. They were beaten 1-2 in Martinique on 3 October and 2-3 at home by Suriname on 26 September. Their defence has been leaking, and if that carries into this one the goals come quickly. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.