Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia — Tips & Analysis

FYR Macedonia +2.75: Macedonia rarely get taken apart, and that is the case for them keeping this close. Switzerland have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 15, so the margin is the whole question. Macedonia have lost by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 15. Fewer than 4 goals landed in 12 of those 15 games. They also let in almost 2 goals a game in away matches, so they lose on the road without being taken apart. Switzerland score just over 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game, and they have won 10 of their last 15. The catch is that their scorelines have been better than their football. They have put up 3-0, 3-0 and 2-1 lately without making many chances. Switzerland's own games have reached 4 goals only 4 times in their last 15. They have nine points from three games and a five point lead, so the group is as good as won. There is little reason for them to chase a fourth goal in Lucerne. A 2-0 Switzerland win looks the likeliest outcome, and that keeps this pick safe. The danger is real. Macedonia have lost five in a row and let in 18 goals in that run, including a 1-7 night in Wales. Switzerland also beat them 3-0 in Skopje ten days ago, and another three-goal win is the shape this pick does not want. We still think Macedonia stay in touch.