Croatia vs Spain — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Spain do not need a high-scoring game to win this, and that is the heart of the case. They have not lost in 15 games, with 13 wins and 2 ties, and they let in less than a goal a game. Their own games average almost 3 goals in total, because they keep the ball, slow things down and score when they want to. Spain already beat this Croatia side 4-1 a week ago, so they have nothing to prove. Croatia arrive in pieces. England put 7 past them three days ago, and they sit third in the group with a goal difference of minus 9. Erlic and Juranovic are injured, Baturina is ill, and late call ups have had to come in. Croatia have created very little across their last five games. A team in that state looks after itself first. Neither side is at home here, so the football decides it. A 0-2 for Spain is the likely end, and a game that size keeps us comfortable. The honest worry is the history between these two. Their last eight meetings averaged almost 4 goals, and the most recent one was a 4-1. Croatia's own games are busy as well, with 12 of their last 16 having 3 or more goals. We think a bruised Croatia and a professional Spain give us the calmer game.