Estonia vs Iceland — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Estonia have turned themselves into a wall, and that is the case for a quiet night in Tallinn. They have not lost in five games, with four clean sheets. They beat Luxembourg 1-0 three days ago, and tied 0-0 with Bulgaria and 1-1 with Iceland before that. The 1-0 wins over Lithuania and the Faroe Islands go back to June. They barely score, under a goal a game, and they have not managed more than one goal in any of those five. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 7 of their last 18 had 3 or more. Iceland are the better team but they travel badly. They have won 3 and lost 4 on the road in this run, and their goals come mostly at home. Iceland are short of attackers as well, with Gudmundsson and Thordarson hurt and Ellertsson suspended. The two meetings between these sides both finished 1-1, the last one in Iceland only ten days ago, and those games had 2 goals in total. Another 1-1 is the likely end, and that is a score we are happy with. Now the warning. Iceland have won their last two 3-0 against Bulgaria and Luxembourg, and 9 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. Estonia also lose their captain Karol Mets to suspension, and Karl Hein has left camp, so the defence that kept those clean sheets is being rebuilt. We still expect a tight, low-scoring game.