Cyprus vs Latvia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Latvia barely score, and that is the heart of this one. They score less than a goal a game across their last 18 games, and even less on the road. They have not scored in two of their last three. Latvia's games average just 2 goals in total, and only 6 of their last 18 had 3 or more goals in them. They have not won by 2 or more goals once in those 18 games. These two met in Riga a week ago and it finished 0-0. Both meetings between them have averaged 1 goal in total. Cyprus do not blow teams away either. They score more than a goal a game at home, where they have won 3 of their last 6. They also lose Kostas Pileas to suspension after his red card against Armenia, so the team gets reshuffled. Latvia are short at the back too, with Antonijs Cernomordijs suspended and Roberts Savalnieks injured. They will sit deep and try to survive. We read this as a 1-0 Cyprus win, and that is comfortable for this pick. The caution is Cyprus's own games. 8 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals, and they let in more than a goal a game, so they do not keep everything tidy. They also need points to hold second place, which could have them chasing a second goal. We still expect a quiet night.