Italy vs Türkiye — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: Türkiye have been stripped of their attack, and a side that cannot score keeps the goals down. Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz are both suspended. Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are injured, and first choice goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir is banned as well. Türkiye have not scored in 2 of their last 3 games, losing 0-1 to France and 0-3 to Belgium. They sit bottom of their group on 0 points with a goal difference of minus 7. Italy are the stronger side, and they are shuffling their team too. Ten players were left behind at Coverciano, and Dimarco, Cristante and Locatelli are all out hurt. Italy have won 10 and tied 3 of their last 18 games, so they know how to take charge of a night like this. A patched up Italy against a Türkiye short of goals points to control, not a shootout. Both play a third game in eight days on three days of rest, which tends to slow a game down. We see Italy 2-0, built early and then managed out, and that keeps the total low. The warning is the recent history. Italy beat this Türkiye 4-1 on 28 September. The last 4 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals, so this is not a quiet pairing by nature. We still expect a game Italy run rather than race.