Romania vs Sweden — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Both back lines here are leaking badly, and that is the heart of this one. Romania have let in 12 goals in their three Nations League games, losing 1-2 at Sweden, 2-4 at home to Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0-6 in Poland. They are bottom of the group with nothing left to protect, so they will go after this. Romania score just over 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. They also lose centre back Radu Dragusin to suspension, which hardly helps a defence already in trouble. Sweden are not tight either. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Alexander Isak is out, along with Carl Starfelt and Emil Holm, so their team is patched up at both ends. Romania are strong in Bucharest, where they have won 5 of their last 7 and score almost 3 goals a game. Put an open home side against a weakened visiting one and the goals should come. We read this as a 2-2, and that is enough for this pick. The warning is history. The last 4 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, so these games have been quiet before. Even so, we want the busier game here.