Tips — Sunday, 4 October 2026

💬 Kosovo are very hard to beat at home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have let in just three goals across their eight home games, winning five of them. Austria are a different team away from Vienna. Their road record reads 3 wins, 2 ties and 4 losses, and they score just over a goal a game on their travels. At home they score more than 3 a game, and that is where their big numbers come from. Austria's last two results flattered them as well. They scored five goals between the 3-1 against Kosovo and the 2-2 in Dublin without creating much. Both attacks are short for this one. Vedat Muriqi missed Kosovo's 0-0 in Israel with a muscle injury and is a doubt, and Austria look likely to be without Michael Gregoritsch and his ankle problem. Kosovo sit three points behind Austria with a promotion play-off place at stake. They will set up to make Pristina awkward rather than chase the game, which suits us. A tight 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is enough here. The risk is the obvious one. Austria won the meeting in Vienna 3-1 only a week ago, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16 games. If they click again, Kosovo have to score to stay in it. We are still backing the hosts to hold them.

💬 Ceuta cannot defend away from home, and Castellon arrive on five straight wins. Ceuta have let in three or more goals in each of their last three away league games. They lost 1-3 at Burgos, 0-3 at Mallorca and 1-5 at FC Andorra. They let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Castellon have won 8, tied 4 and lost 2 of their last 14. They score more than a goal a game and let in under one, and they have not lost by 2 or more in any of those 14 games. Ceuta have won 4, tied 5 and lost 6 of their last 15. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 6 of them, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. That gap is what this pick is built on. Castellon should be in front before the hour against a defense this open. A 2-0 Castellon win is the likeliest finish. That is the shape we want, and a third goal would make it comfortable. Two things give us pause. Castellon are missing six senior players. Vlak and Brignani are hurt, Mellot is banned and three more are away with their countries. The team that starts is hard to call. Their home form is the weaker half of their season as well, and these two tied three of their last four meetings. We still back Castellon to win this clearly.

💬 The history between these two says one goal decides it. Four of the last five meetings finished 1-0 or 2-1, and the last seven averaged just over 2 goals in total. Valladolid are the main reason to expect another quiet night. They have not won any of their last eight away games, where they score under a goal a game and let in more than one. Only 4 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average 2 goals in total. Las Palmas are not built to blow a game open either. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 15. They have also lost three of their last five, including a 1-2 home loss to Burgos, and they were held 0-0 at home by Leganes last month. Neither side scores enough to turn this into a busy evening. A 1-0 Las Palmas win is the likeliest finish, and one goal keeps this well on the right side. The risk sits with the hosts. 9 of Las Palmas's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and they have been in a 2-3, a 1-2 and a 2-5 in their last six. Valladolid beat Cordoba 3-1 last time out, so they can score when a game opens up. We still expect a flat, low-scoring night.

💬 Greece have already done this job once. They won 1-0 in Germany on 27 September and now lead the group with 7 points from 3 games, three clear of tonight's visitors. That was not a one off. Greece have lost by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 14 games, and they have scored in all three group games. Germany have the better players, but their away version has been blunt. They have managed only 1 goal a game across their last 5 away trips, and they are missing Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala. Thessaloniki will be loud, and Greece will drop deep and ask Germany to solve the same puzzle again. Expect Germany to keep the ball and push up, then run into bodies. A scrappy 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that shape suits us fine. The warnings here are real. Germany sit third on 4 points, which is the relegation play-off place, so they have to win and they will take risks to do it. Greece also let in nearly 2 goals a game on this ground, which is softer than they are away from home. We are still happy to back Greece to stay with them.

💬 Portugal have already beaten this Norway side, winning 2-1 in Oslo on 27 September. They have been perfect in the group, taking 9 points from 3 games with a goal difference of plus four. They also put four past Denmark away on Thursday. Portugal have won 10 of their last 16 games, they score more than 2 goals a game, and they have lost once in their last nine at home. Norway are hurting. They have lost three of their last four, they sit third in the relegation play-off place, and Torbjorn Heggem is suspended after his red card at Wales. Norway have also stopped making chances. In their last two games they created less than a goal's worth of openings. Ronaldo has left the camp, but Goncalo Ramos has scored in back to back games and Portugal have not looked like they miss him. The Dragao will be loud and Norway have to chase the game, which is exactly how Portugal like it. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest finish, and that is all we need. Norway are still dangerous. They score just over 3 goals a game and have won 5 of their 6 away games, so Portugal cannot switch off at the back. We are with Portugal to win this one.

💬 Both sides need this game, and that is where the goals come from. Wales sit bottom of the group on goal difference, level on 3 points with Denmark and Norway, so they cannot sit back and protect anything. Denmark bring goals with them. 11 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and they score just over 2 goals a game on the road. They also let in almost 2 a game away from home. Denmark also lost 2-4 at home to Portugal on Thursday, which tells you how open they can be. Wales are missing a lot of people. Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon, Nathan Broadhead and Rubin Colwill are all out. A patched up back line against a Danish side that scores plenty is not a recipe for a quiet night. Wales do score at Cardiff, almost 2 goals a game overall, and they beat Norway 2-1 there on 1 October. A 1-2 away win looks the likeliest finish, and that is enough for us. The caution is real though. Wales have lost all four recent meetings with Denmark and scored only one goal across the four, so this pairing has served up some tight, dull nights. Only 7 of Wales's last 15 games had 3 or more goals. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Ireland have already taken this Israel side apart, winning the first meeting 3-0 on 27 September. Troy Parrott is up to 7 goals in 5 competitive games and Israel have no answer to that kind of form. Israel are the weakest team in this group. They have lost 9 of their last 16 games and let in more than 2 goals a game. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals 7 times in those 16. They are down to a backup goalkeeper too, with Daniel Peretz out with a groin problem. This is not a home game for Ireland. The game has been moved to Backa Topola in Serbia and is played behind closed doors, so there is no crowd and no ground advantage for either side. Ireland are the better team all the same. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 14 games, and they know how to grind a result out. A 2-1 for Ireland is the likeliest finish, and that does the job. Patience is the risk. Israel kept Kosovo out for the full 90 minutes on Thursday, their only clean sheet of this run, so they can sit deep and frustrate. Ireland score under 2 goals a game, so the breakthrough may take time. We still want Ireland here.

💬 These two rarely give each other anything. Their last 13 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, and the last five were all one goal games. Nothing about tonight suggests a change. Girona and Mallorca are level on 13 points, both scrapping for the last play-off place, and neither can afford to open up at Montilivi. Mallorca are the main reason to expect a quiet night. They have scored less than a goal a game across their 7 away games, with just one goal in three Segunda road trips. They defend well too, letting in less than a goal a game, and only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Girona have won four of their last five and have scored in all four of their home league games. They are not a free scoring team though, and they manage just over a goal a game. Girona have had 9 days off and Mallorca 7, and fresh legs in a tight table usually mean care, not chaos. A 1-0 to Girona is the likeliest finish, and that keeps us well clear. Two warnings. Girona did hit 5 in one of those home games, so they can blow a night open. Their defence has also been letting in fewer goals than the chances they give up. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Guyana have just done this job, and they did it with room to spare. They beat Dominica 5-1 on 1 October and arrive on a run of five straight wins. That form is no accident. Guyana have won 12 of their last 19 games, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 9 of them. They score just over 2 goals a game. Dominica are the other side of the same coin. They have won 2 and lost 12 of their last 17, and 8 of those losses were by 2 or more goals. On the road they barely score, under a goal a game across seven trips. This one is at a neutral ground in Mayaguez, so neither team gets a crowd behind them, and both have had 3 days to recover. Expect Dominica to drop deep and try to keep the score down. Expect Guyana to be two up by the hour. A 3-0 to Guyana is the likeliest finish, and that is the kind of win we want here. The honest worry is that Dominica can shut up shop when they commit to it. They held Cayman Islands and Sint Maarten to 0-0 ties this year, and Guyana's other two wins in this competition were only 2-0 and 1-0. We still back Guyana to be far too strong.

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and that is the heart of this one. British Virgin Islands have not scored in their last three games. They lost 0-2 to Montserrat, 0-3 to Turks and Caicos and 0-3 at Montserrat, and they manage a goal a game at best. They defend reasonably well too, letting in under 2 goals a game, so their games stay small. Their games have under 3 goals in them on average. Turks and Caicos are no better in front of goal. They score just over a goal a game, and they were beaten 0-2 at home by Montserrat on 23 September, so they can go quiet too. The rest gap favours the hosts. Turks and Caicos have had 5 days off and the visitors only 3, so the home side should be the one controlling this rather than chasing it. One goal from a set piece or a mistake looks like it will decide the game. A 1-0 to Turks and Caicos is the likeliest finish, and a game of that shape never gets busy. The risk sits in the head to head. The last five meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and two of them finished 2-2, so one early goal each way would change the whole story. Turks and Caicos do let in more than 2 goals a game, so they are not watertight either. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.

💬 US Virgin Islands have already beaten this team, and the reason is simple. Bahamas cannot defend. They have lost all of their last 5 games and they let in more than 4 goals a game. The damage comes in bulk too, with an 0-8 against Saint Martin on 23 September and an 0-6 against British Virgin Islands. Across their last 19 games Bahamas have won 1 and lost 16, and 11 of those losses were by 2 or more goals. US Virgin Islands are nothing special, but they do not need to be. They won this same meeting 3-1 on 29 September. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over 2 a game. Every recent meeting between these two has been open, with the last three finishing 1-3, 3-1 and 3-3. All three had four goals or more in them. So expect Bahamas to get on the scoresheet and still get beaten, because they cannot keep the ball out. A 3-1 win for US Virgin Islands is the likeliest finish. The real worry is the visitors themselves. They were hammered 0-5 by Saint Martin on 1 October, and they barely score on their travels, under a goal a game across nine trips. They have also won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 18 games. We still side with US Virgin Islands. The defending they are up against is the worst thing on the pitch.

💬 Cayman Islands do not score, and that is what keeps this quiet. They have been kept out in each of their last three games, and they manage under a goal a game on their travels across seven trips. Their games have under 3 goals in them on average. Puerto Rico do not need many goals either. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in 1 goal a game. At home they have won 6 of their last 8. They won 3-0 in Grand Cayman on 2 October and lead the last four meetings 4-0, with winning margins of four, three, three and two goals. So Puerto Rico win these games, and they do it without a flood of goals. Both squads are into their third game in eight days with only 2 days of rest. Tired legs and a one sided game point the same way. Puerto Rico score early, then take the pace out of it. A 3-0 to Puerto Rico is the likeliest finish, and a quiet second half is exactly what these two produce. The warning is that Puerto Rico do have a big win in them. One of these meetings ended 5-1, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 15 games. If Cayman Islands pinch an early goal and Puerto Rico keep pushing for more, the goals can stack up. We still expect a one sided game that stays quiet.

💬 Aruba are the better team, but they do not win big in competitive games. Their two Nations League wins came by 2-0 and 1-0, and that 2-0 was against these same opponents five days ago. They are on a run of five straight wins, but the three-goal wins in it came against Liechtenstein, Macau and Barbados. Two of those came in the FIFA Series, against a different sort of opponent. Aruba score under 2 goals a game across their last 17, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of those 17. Anguilla are poor, and we are not pretending otherwise. They have won 3 and lost 10 of their last 13 games. They barely score, under a goal a game, and they have been kept out in four of their last five. That is the point though. Anguilla have nothing to chase with, so they will sit deep and accept a quiet defeat. This is also at a neutral ground in Antigua, so no crowd will lift the better team. A 2-0 to Aruba is the likeliest finish, the same score as the first game. The danger is Anguilla's habit of folding. They were beaten 0-5 only eight days ago, and a 0-4 earlier this year. They also let in 3 goals a game across their eight games on the road. If Aruba get a second goal early, the rest can run away from them. We still think Anguilla keep this one respectable.

💬 Costa Rica have a point to prove here, and that should mean an open game. Haiti beat them 2-0 a week ago, so the hosts come back to San Jose needing goals rather than a quiet night. Costa Rica have the attack for it. They have scored 3 goals a game across their eight home games, winning five of them. Haiti are not sitting back either after winning 4-1 at the Dominican Republic last time out. Their problem is the defending. Haiti let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, where their record reads 2 wins, 2 ties and 4 losses. Both teams keep landing in busy games. 10 of Costa Rica's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and so did 9 of Haiti's last 16. Haiti have also scored in all five of their recent meetings with Costa Rica, so a clean sheet for the hosts looks unlikely. A 2-1 Costa Rica win is the likeliest finish, and three goals is enough for this one. The warning is the history between these two. Their last eight meetings have averaged just over 2 goals, and Costa Rica were kept off the board in two of the last three. If Haiti sit deep and the hosts get frustrated, this can die as a 1-0. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Only one of these teams still has something to play for. A win sends the Dominican Republic into the Nations League quarter-finals for the first time, and Nicaragua are bottom of the group with no points. Nicaragua are in poor shape. They have lost four in a row and let in twelve goals across their three Nations League games. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 16. The Dominicans know how to punish that. They have scored more than 2 goals a game across their five away games, and they have won 7 of their last 15. The gap should show in Managua. Nicaragua score under a goal a game at home, so they rarely make life hard for better teams. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest finish, and a clear Dominican win is what this pick is built on. There are honest doubts. The Dominican Republic were beaten 4-1 at home by Haiti last time out, and they needed a 97th-minute goal to see off Nicaragua 3-2 in the first meeting. They let in more than 2 goals a game on the road as well, which keeps the hosts in it. Nicaragua have nothing left to lose, and that can cut either way. We are still with the visitors, and we want them winning with room.