France vs Belgium — Tips & Analysis

Belgium +1.25: Belgium do not get beaten heavily. They have lost by 2 or more goals in none of their last 16 games, and France have never needed a big win to see them off. The last 6 meetings all went France's way, and the most recent five were 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0 and 3-2. France are missing a lot for this one. Kylian Mbappe is out with a knee injury, Dayot Upamecano is suspended and Ibrahima Konate has gone home hurt, which leaves a patched up back line. France still let in under a goal a game, so this is a strong defence, just not the usual one. Belgium have won 10 and tied 4 of their last 16 games, and they let in under a goal a game as well. Their trouble is creating. Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both suspended and Leandro Trossard has a heel problem, so their best passers are all absent. Two careful teams, three days after their last game, points to a slow night in Paris. The 6 meetings before this one averaged just over 2 goals. We see 1-1, and that is a clean result for this pick. The risk is France's top gear. They have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 16 games, so a weakened Belgium midfield could be picked apart. We will still take Belgium to stay in this game.