Tips — Saturday, 3 October 2026

💬 These two could not break each other down the last time they met. They tied 0-0 in January and their last two meetings averaged just 1 goal in total. That is the base of this pick. China have let in less than a goal a game. They have given up only three goals in five Asian Games matches, with 0-0 ties against Iran and the UAE. They have tied 6 of their last 13, so low-event football is normal for them. Uzbekistan are the better attacking side, with almost 2 goals a game and four straight wins before the semi-final, and they took 9 points from Group C. Their legs are the issue. They played 120 minutes plus a ten-round penalty shootout on 30 September. That leaves them the same three days of rest as a China side that played only 90 minutes. This is also a bronze-medal match, and both teams have just lost a semi-final. Expect changes, flat energy and few clear chances. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, and two goals is on the right side of this. The worry is Uzbekistan's attack. Seven of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals, and that attack can still hurt China even on heavy legs. Motivation in a third-place game is anyone's guess too. We still expect a quiet, low-scoring game.

💬 Two of the best defences in this tournament meet in a final, and that points one way. Japan have let in less than a goal a game across their last 19, and Korea let in less than a goal a game as well. The seven meetings between these two have averaged 2 goals in total. Japan have won 16, tied 2 and lost 1 of those 19 games, and they beat this same Korea side 1-0 at the Asian Cup in January. Korea have won 9, tied 2 and lost 2 of their last 13 and arrive in good form. These two know each other far too well for an open game. Japan also needed 120 minutes and ten rounds of penalties to beat Uzbekistan three days ago, so legs will be heavy from the first whistle. Korea have their own problems. Yang Hyun-jun and captain Lee Gi-hyuk were both hurt in the semi-final and are in doubt here. A gold medal on the line rarely brings a loose, open game. A 1-0 Japan win is the likeliest finish and that sits comfortably inside this. The risk is Korea's own scoring record. Their games average just over 3 goals in total, and 8 of their last 13 have had 3 or more goals. If this one opens up early, we lose. We still want the tight final.

💬 Albania are the better organised team here, and they only have to avoid losing. They lead their group on six points from two games, having beaten Belarus 2-0 and San Marino 3-0 without letting in a goal. On the road they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 3 of their last eight, letting in less than a goal a game away. Finland's problem is at the other end. They have won just 2 of their last 8 home games and score less than a goal a game there. Across a longer run they have won 5, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 16. They have won by 2 or more goals only twice in that time. Albania do not score heavily either, about a goal a game, but their games are quiet and they stay in them. They have lost by 2 or more goals only 3 times in their last 15, and only 4 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals. That points to a cagey night in Helsinki decided by one goal, and a 0-1 Albania win is the likeliest finish. That lands this comfortably. The honest worry is that Albania are missing Qazim Laci, and these two have no past meeting to go on. Finland also put 7 past San Marino in this group, so they can score when space opens up. We still want Albania.

💬 These two give each other nothing when they meet. Their last 6 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, only a third of them reached 3 goals, and the last one finished 0-0. Both teams are built to keep it that way. Almeria have won 7 and tied 3 of their last 15, and they let in less than a goal a game. Their own games have had just over 2 goals in them on average. Burgos are tighter again. They have won 8, tied 5 and lost only 2 of their last 15, and they have the meaner back line. Their games average almost 2 goals in total. They have won 3 and tied 2 of their last 7 away games, letting in under a goal a game on the road. This is third against fourth with a single point between them. Neither side wants to lose a game this big, so both will be careful and the first goal becomes close to decisive. One moment from Embarba or De la Fuente is the likeliest way it breaks. A 1-0 Almeria win is the likeliest finish, and that sits well inside what we want. The risk is that Burgos have been giving up more chances than their clean sheets suggest. If they go behind and chase it late, a tight game can open up fast. We still expect a quiet night in Almeria.

💬 These two do not produce the goals their names suggest. Their last 5 meetings averaged almost 3 goals in total, even though England won the latest one 4-2. Croatia have won all six of their home games in this run and let in less than a goal a game there. The case for a tight night is what both sides have been creating lately, not their goal totals. Between them they are making more than 2 goals' worth of chances a game, well below what those totals suggest. Modric and Kovacic still slow the game to their own pace. They also sit third in the group, in the relegation playoff place, so a loss here really hurts them. They will be careful. England have won 12 of their last 15 and let in a goal a game, so they do not need an open game to win one. Croatia are missing Martin Erlic and Josip Juranovic, and England lost only Nico O'Reilly. This should be fierce and physical rather than stretched, with the midfield fight deciding it. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and two goals is well inside what we want. The risk is England on the road. One of their last five away games finished 6-4. 9 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals, and 11 of Croatia's last 16 did too. If Croatia have to chase this late, it breaks open. We still want the tighter game.

💬 Iceland are the better side here, and they meet a Bulgaria team in a mess. Bulgaria have no permanent manager and are without Ilia Gruev, Filip Krastev and Stanislav Shopov. They have scored once in their two Nations League games, a 0-0 with Estonia and a 1-2 loss to Luxembourg. That leaves them bottom of the group on one point. Iceland are going the other way. They won 3-0 in Luxembourg in their last game and lead League C Group D on four points from two. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 13. Bulgaria give plenty away at the back. They let in just over 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16. Expect Iceland to hold the ball in Reykjavik and feed Orri Oskarsson and Andri Gudjohnsen, with Bulgaria sitting deep and trying to keep the score down. A 2-0 for Iceland is the likeliest finish, and a two-goal win is what we want here. The catch is that Iceland have won only one of their six home games in this run, so a big home win is not routine for them. They are also missing Sverrir Ingi Ingason and Arnor Sigurdsson, and two more are doubtful. Iceland still look too strong for this Bulgaria side.

💬 Neither of these sides can score, and that is the whole case for a quiet night in Tallinn. Estonia have let in just one goal across their two Nations League games, a 0-0 at Bulgaria and a 1-1 in Iceland. They also kept clean sheets in both of their 1-0 home wins earlier this year. The trouble is at the other end too. Estonia score less than a goal a game, and only 8 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals. Luxembourg are just as poor on the road. They have scored less than a goal a game across the seven away games in this run, and they arrive without Danel Sinani and Christopher Martins. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 6 of their last 14 had 3 or more. Two weak attacks and two careful back lines point to a scrappy game with very few clear chances. Neither side will push men forward until the closing stages. A 1-0 to Estonia looks the likeliest finish, and one goal is enough for us. The honest worry is that Luxembourg do score on their travels, with a 2-1 win at Bulgaria and a 2-0 at Malta in this run. Their team news is unclear as well, so the missing men may yet play. We still want the low-scoring game here.

💬 Neither of these teams can find a goal, and that is the simple case for a quiet night at Nuevo Mirandilla. Cadiz have scored less than a goal a game across their six home games in this run. They let in less than a goal a game at home too. Their four home league games this season finished 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 and 1-2. Cadiz have also won just once in their last 12 games, with six ties among them. Leganes are even quieter away from home. They have scored two goals in total across their five away games this year. Their games average just under 2 goals, and only 3 of their last 11 had 3 or more. The shape of this one is easy to picture. Cadiz will have the ball and little idea what to do with it. Leganes will sit in a back three, and a point suits them fine. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and a goal each is the sort of night we are backing. The risk is real, though. Cadiz are desperate for a first win, and if they throw bodies forward late the game can open up. They lost 2-3 at Almeria and 1-2 to Girona earlier in this run, so they can get dragged into busier games. We still think the goals stay low here.

💬 Goals have been hard to come by whenever these two meet. Their last five meetings produced just over a goal a game between them, and only one of those five games reached 3 goals. Both teams are built that way. The UAE have tied 7 of their last 16 games and let in just over a goal a game, so tight nights are normal for them. They still topped Group B with 7 points and were the best team in it. Oman are more careful again. They score 1 goal a game across their last 15 and have tied 7 of them. They sit deep, crowd the middle and ask the other team to find a way through. Their back four has let in only three goals in this tournament outside one heavy defeat. A semi-final pulls both sides further back. Neither wants to make the mistake that ends their tournament. A 1-0 for the UAE looks the likeliest finish, and one goal is well clear of what we need. The honest worry is that the UAE did win 4-0 and 3-0 in the group, and 9 of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals. Oman also come in with an extra day of rest, 4 days to the UAE's 3, after beating Kuwait 3-1. We still expect a quiet, low-scoring game.

💬 Spain win these games without running up the score. They have won by 3 or more goals in only 6 of their last 15, and 5 of their 13 wins came by a single goal. That is the heart of this one. Spain have won 13 and tied 2 of their last 15, with no losses. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. They are also short of attackers. Nico Williams, Ferran Torres, Alejandro Grimaldo and Eric Garcia have all dropped out, and they are the players who turn control into goals. Czechia are bottom of their group with 0 points and have scored 3 goals in their last five games. They will sit deep, protect their box and chase the ball for long spells. The last three meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals in total. That fits the shape of the night. Spain get in front, add a second, then play within themselves rather than hunt more. A 2-0 Spain win looks the likeliest finish and it clears this comfortably. The warning is that Czechia do score on the road, almost 2 goals a game in this run, so a clean sheet is far from certain. If Spain chase a big win and Czechia answer, the goals pile up fast. We still expect Spain to control this and keep the total down.

💬 Switzerland do not just win these games. They win them well. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 14, which is exactly what this pick asks for. They have won 9, tied 4 and lost 1 of those 14 games. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. They opened this Nations League run with a 3-0 win over Macedonia and a 3-0 win over Scotland. Slovenia are their own worst enemy going forward. They score less than a goal a game across their last 14 and have won by 2 or more goals only once in that run. Benjamin Sesko, Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Verbic are all out, so they have no proper striker to carry a counter. That lets Switzerland push up, keep the ball and work away at a deep block until it gives. A 2-0 Switzerland win is the likeliest finish, and that is enough to land this. Two warnings, both fair. One of their last two meetings finished 0-0, and Slovenia have tied 7 of their last 14, so a 1-0 is live. Switzerland are without Granit Xhaka, Breel Embolo, Denis Zakaria and Ruben Vargas, which costs them some control and their main striker. We still back Switzerland to win this by 2 or more.

💬 Neither of these teams can find a goal at the moment. Between them they have scored 2 goals in their four Nations League games this cycle, and Scotland have not scored in either of theirs. Macedonia have taken one point from their last five competitive games and scored twice in them. Only 6 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals. They are also without Ezgjan Alioski and Boban Nikolov, and Darko Churlinov pulled out earlier. Scotland are far better away from home, with 4 wins, 2 ties and 1 loss on the road and less than a goal a game let in. Their problem is at the other end. Scott McTominay, Lawrence Shankland, Che Adams, Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean are all missing, and Jack Hendry is suspended. Both sides sit in or next to the relegation place, so both fear losing more than they want to win. That points to a slow, nervous night in Skopje with one goal deciding it. A 1-0 for Scotland is the likeliest finish and that clears this easily. The risk here is real. Macedonia were beaten 7-1 by Wales and 4-0 by Denmark inside that run, so they can fall apart. And 8 of Scotland's last 14 games have had 3 or more goals. We still want the quiet night.