Tips — Friday, 2 October 2026

💬 The Philippines hardly threaten against this level of team, and that keeps the goals down. They have not scored in three of their last four games against teams from this region, losing 0-1 to Vietnam, 0-1 to Malaysia and 0-1 to Thailand. Their away record is their best set of numbers. They let in a goal a game in away games, so they are not easy to pull apart either. Thailand have been the best side in this group by a distance. They have won both games without letting one in, 4-0 against Pakistan and 2-0 against Vietnam. They also let in under a goal a game across their last 17. That cuts both ends of the game. The Philippines will get very little, and Thailand will not need much. The history is quiet too. The last 10 meetings averaged more than 2 goals, and the most recent was a 1-0 Thailand win in August. This is a tournament game on neutral ground, so neither side has a crowd behind them. Thailand are three points clear with a +6 goal difference, so they have no need to chase a big score. A 2-0 Thailand win is the likeliest result, and that lands the bet. The risk is Thailand's attack. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won by 2 or more in 10 of their last 17. We still think this one stays tight.

💬 Pakistan are the reason we want the quieter game here. They barely score, less than a goal a game across their last 16, and they have won only one of them. They have lost by 3 or more goals in 8 of those 16 games, and they lost 0-4 to Thailand in this same group last week. A team that cannot score caps the total on its own, because the goals have to come from one end. Vietnam are strong but not wild. They have won 11 of their last 15 and they let in under a goal a game. Only 6 of those 15 games had 4 or more goals in them, and their games average close to 3 goals in total. This one is on neutral ground in Jakarta, so Vietnam have no crowd behind them. Pakistan can sit deep from the first whistle under Nolberto Solano, at their first FIFA tournament. A 3-0 Vietnam win is the likeliest result, and that gets the bet home. Now the honest part. Vietnam are second on a -1 goal difference against Thailand's +6, so they have a reason to keep pushing late. Pakistan also tied 2-2 with the Philippines last time out, which shows they can join in a scoring game. We still expect a comfortable Vietnam win rather than a flood of goals.

💬 Neither of these sides can score, and that is the simple case for a quiet night in Astana. Moldova have not won in 17 games. They get under a goal a game in away games and have won just one of their last seven on the road. Kazakhstan are hardly better going forward. They score just over a goal a game. A 4-0 win over Liechtenstein made up half of their home goals in this run, so the rest has been thin. What Kazakhstan do have is a tight back line. They have let in under a goal a game in their home games. They have not lost in their last four at the Astana Arena, keeping three clean sheets. The history between them says the same thing. All three meetings so far were decided by a single goal, and those games averaged under 2 goals in total. Both teams sit on one point, with Moldova bottom of the group, so they will try to keep this small. A 1-0 Kazakhstan win is the likeliest result, and that lands the bet with room to spare. The catch is that Kazakhstan need this win badly and will have to come forward to get it. Moldova have let in close to 3 goals a game in this run, so one early goal could stretch the game open. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Neither of these sides can score, and that is the whole case here. Cyprus manage just over a goal a game. Armenia barely reach one. Cyprus have won 3, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 14, and they have won by 2 or more goals only twice in that run. At home they have taken 2 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses from six games. This is a shallow home side, not a strong one. Armenia have lost 10 of their last 14 and they travel badly. Their record for letting in goals looks awful. Three heavy beatings explain most of it, 1-9 and 0-5 against Portugal and 1-6 against Georgia. Against teams closer to their own level they have let in 0, 1, 1, 2 and 3. Expect a slow evening. Armenia will sit deep and try to survive rather than counter, and Cyprus have not scored more than twice against anyone decent lately. A 1-0 Cyprus win is the most likely result, with the goal arriving late once the visitors tire. The warning is real, though. Three or more goals landed in 9 of Cyprus's 14 games and 8 of Armenia's 14. Both past meetings between these two produced four or five goals, so one early goal would flip the night. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Oviedo arrive here with their attack in pieces, and that is the main reason we are backing the home side. Five of their forwards are injured, including Chris Ramos, Estanis Pedrola, Ilyas Chaira and Carlos Fernandez. Goalkeeper Aaron Escandell is a doubt too. Eldense are not a good team, but they do not get beaten up on their own ground. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games. Oviedo barely score. They get less than a goal a game and have won just 4 of their last 15. A patched up front line is not going to fix that in one night. These two have been locked together for years. The last four meetings ended 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 and 1-3, with three ties and an average of 2 goals. Expect the same shape again. Long quiet spells, one scrappy Eldense goal from a set piece or a scramble, then a nervy last twenty minutes. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest result. The warning here is real. Eldense have still not won at home in Segunda this season, taking 2 ties and a loss from three. Oviedo have won 2 of their 3 away trips in the league. We are backing Eldense anyway, because the visitors have nobody left to finish the chances they make.

💬 Dundalk games are rarely quiet, and that is the main reason we want goals here. 14 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals, and their last five produced 5, 4, 2, 6 and 5. The bigger problem is how they defend at home. Dundalk have won only 3 of 10 at Oriel Park and let in almost 2 a game. Their last two there ended 0-4 to St Patrick's Athletic and 2-3 to Shelbourne. Bohemians are the better side and they are playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, won 10 of their last 19 overall, and score almost 2 goals a game. They are protecting third place and a European spot, so they need this. Both teams have had 14 days off, so nobody is tired and nobody gets rested. Dundalk will have spells of their own and they do score at home, which is how this opens up. The 20 games between these two average 3 goals. A 1-2 Bohemians win is the likeliest single score. That is three goals, and we want a fourth on top. Be warned though. The last five meetings produced 3, 4, 2, 2 and 2 goals, and Bohemians are far quieter on the road than their recent scorelines suggest. We still want the busier game.

💬 France come into this with their best players missing, and that is why we are taking Italy with a head start. Kylian Mbappe is out with a knee injury he picked up scoring the winner in Turkey. Both first choice centre backs, William Saliba and Ibrahima Konate, are absent as well, along with Aurelien Tchouameni. France are still a strong team. They have won 13 of their last 16 and score more than 2 goals a game. But they have scored exactly one goal in each of their two Nations League games, winning 1-0 in Turkey and 1-0 in Belgium. This is not a side burying opponents right now. Italy travel well. They have won 5 and tied 2 of their last 8 on the road, scoring more than 2 goals a game. They also won 4-1 in Turkey last time out. A patched up French back line is the obvious place to attack them. These two are close. The last four meetings ended 2 wins each and averaged more than 3 goals. Italy are without Giacomo Raspadori, Federico Dimarco and Nicolo Zaniolo, so they are not at full strength either. An honest 1-1 looks the likeliest result. The worry is that France have won by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 16. Without Mbappe and that centre back pair, we think this stays tight.

💬 Belgium will be short handed for this one, and that is why we want Türkiye to stay close. Thibaut Courtois and Jeremy Doku are out of the squad altogether. Diego Moreira is suspended, and Romeo Lavia faces a late fitness test. Belgium still win most of their games. They have lost only 2 of their last 16 and they let in under a goal a game. The catch is the winning margin. Belgium have won by 2 or more goals in just 7 of those 16, so they tend to win without burying teams. Türkiye are better than the group table says. They score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they have won 4 of 7, scoring just over 2 a game. They have also been creating plenty without getting paid for it. Belgium, meanwhile, have been giving up far more chances than their results suggest, and now they do it without Courtois. Both squads played four days ago, so legs will be heavy and both coaches will change players. A 2-1 Belgium win is the likeliest result, and a one goal game is exactly the shape we want. The risk is simple. Türkiye have lost four of their last five, including 1-4 at home to Italy, and they sit bottom of the group with no points. We still think they keep this tight.

💬 Both of these teams can live with a tie, and that is the heart of this one. Ukraine and Northern Ireland are level on four points at the top of the group with the same goal difference, so neither has to force the game. Northern Ireland are the tighter side by a long way. They let in under a goal a game across their last 13, and only 4 of those games had 3 or more goals in them. Their games average just over 2 goals in total. Ukraine are not firing either. They have scored once in their two group games so far, and they get just over a goal a game across their last 15. The recent meetings back it up. Neither of the last two went past 2 goals. This game is on neutral ground in Trnava, so there is no crowd lifting Ukraine and no home advantage for either side. Northern Ireland will sit in and make the pitch feel small, even without the injured Dan Ballard. A 1-1 is the likeliest result, and that is exactly the shape we want. The risk is that there is no room to spare. One more goal turns this bet. Northern Ireland also let in more than a goal a game when they are away from home, and Ukraine have a fully fit squad with Vitaliy Mykolenko back. We still back the quiet game here.

💬 Romania cannot keep a clean sheet, and that is the main reason we want goals in Warsaw. They have let in at least one goal in each of their last five games, including four at home to Bosnia & Herzegovina and two in Sweden. Poland are open too. They let in close to 2 goals a game in this run, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Romania are just as busy. Their games average more than 3 goals in total. They score more than 2 goals a game, but two big wins over San Marino lift that number. The group table pushes the same way. Romania sit bottom on zero points, so a quiet night in Warsaw is no use to them. They have to come forward, and that leaves gaps against a Poland side who have lost twice in nine at home. Poland have gone five games without a win and badly want this one, so they will have a go as well. A 2-1 Poland win is the likeliest result, and that gets the bet home. The caution is Poland's flat spell in front of goal. They tied 0-0 at home with Bosnia in this same group, and they let in just over a goal a game in Warsaw. So they can keep a game quiet once they lead. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Sweden are a completely different team away from home, and that is the heart of this pick. On the road they have won just 1 of 7 games, scoring only just over a goal a game and letting in more than 2. Now they travel without Alexander Isak and Emil Holm, so their first choice striker is gone. Bosnia are strong at Bilino Polje. They have won 4 and tied 1 of their last 6 at home, score almost 2 goals a game there and let in 1 a game. Their whole squad is fit. Edin Dzeko also plays his last game for his country here, and a captain's send off in front of a packed home crowd lifts a team. Sweden do arrive in form. They top the group on 6 points after beating Romania 2-1 and Poland 3-1. Both of those wins came in Stockholm though, and this is a straight fight for first place. Both teams played four days ago, so expect a tight, scrappy game rather than an open one. A 2-1 Bosnia win looks the likeliest outcome, and that is all we need. The one worry is how often Bosnia end up tying games. They have tied 6 of their last 16, including 1-1 at home to Italy. We are still with the home side here.

💬 Slovakia away from home are nothing like Slovakia at home, and that is the whole case here. They have lost six of their last seven on the road, where they score under a goal a game and let in 2. Both group wins, 2-0 over Moldova and 2-1 over Kazakhstan, came in Kosice. The Faroe Islands have turned Torsvollur into a horrible trip. They have won 3 and tied 2 of their last 6 at home, letting in under a goal a game. They have also beaten Czechia 2-1 and Montenegro 4-0 on that pitch. Most important for us, the Faroes rarely get run over. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 1 of their last 15 games. This will be compact, physical and short on chances. Faroe games produce 2 goals in total on average. Both teams played three days ago and the Faroes had to fly back from Moldova, so nobody will be racing around. A 1-1 tie looks the likeliest result, and the Faroes have already tied 1-1 with both Moldova and Kazakhstan in this group. The danger is clear enough. Slovakia lead the group by 4 points and are far better on paper, so a 2-0 or 3-0 is well within them. We think the Faroes stay in this one.