Croatia vs England — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: These two do not produce the goals their names suggest. Their last 5 meetings averaged almost 3 goals in total, even though England won the latest one 4-2. Croatia have won all six of their home games in this run and let in less than a goal a game there. The case for a tight night is what both sides have been creating lately, not their goal totals. Between them they are making more than 2 goals' worth of chances a game, well below what those totals suggest. Modric and Kovacic still slow the game to their own pace. They also sit third in the group, in the relegation playoff place, so a loss here really hurts them. They will be careful. England have won 12 of their last 15 and let in a goal a game, so they do not need an open game to win one. Croatia are missing Martin Erlic and Josip Juranovic, and England lost only Nico O'Reilly. This should be fierce and physical rather than stretched, with the midfield fight deciding it. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and two goals is well inside what we want. The risk is England on the road. One of their last five away games finished 6-4. 9 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals, and 11 of Croatia's last 16 did too. If Croatia have to chase this late, it breaks open. We still want the tighter game.