Spain vs Czechia — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.75: Spain win these games without running up the score. They have won by 3 or more goals in only 6 of their last 15, and 5 of their 13 wins came by a single goal. That is the heart of this one. Spain have won 13 and tied 2 of their last 15, with no losses. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. They are also short of attackers. Nico Williams, Ferran Torres, Alejandro Grimaldo and Eric Garcia have all dropped out, and they are the players who turn control into goals. Czechia are bottom of their group with 0 points and have scored 3 goals in their last five games. They will sit deep, protect their box and chase the ball for long spells. The last three meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals in total. That fits the shape of the night. Spain get in front, add a second, then play within themselves rather than hunt more. A 2-0 Spain win looks the likeliest finish and it clears this comfortably. The warning is that Czechia do score on the road, almost 2 goals a game in this run, so a clean sheet is far from certain. If Spain chase a big win and Czechia answer, the goals pile up fast. We still expect Spain to control this and keep the total down.