China PR U23 vs Uzbekistan U23 — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: These two could not break each other down the last time they met. They tied 0-0 in January and their last two meetings averaged just 1 goal in total. That is the base of this pick. China have let in less than a goal a game. They have given up only three goals in five Asian Games matches, with 0-0 ties against Iran and the UAE. They have tied 6 of their last 13, so low-event football is normal for them. Uzbekistan are the better attacking side, with almost 2 goals a game and four straight wins before the semi-final, and they took 9 points from Group C. Their legs are the issue. They played 120 minutes plus a ten-round penalty shootout on 30 September. That leaves them the same three days of rest as a China side that played only 90 minutes. This is also a bronze-medal match, and both teams have just lost a semi-final. Expect changes, flat energy and few clear chances. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, and two goals is on the right side of this. The worry is Uzbekistan's attack. Seven of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals, and that attack can still hurt China even on heavy legs. Motivation in a third-place game is anyone's guess too. We still expect a quiet, low-scoring game.