Switzerland vs Slovenia — Tips & Analysis

Switzerland -1.25: Switzerland do not just win these games. They win them well. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 14, which is exactly what this pick asks for. They have won 9, tied 4 and lost 1 of those 14 games. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. They opened this Nations League run with a 3-0 win over Macedonia and a 3-0 win over Scotland. Slovenia are their own worst enemy going forward. They score less than a goal a game across their last 14 and have won by 2 or more goals only once in that run. Benjamin Sesko, Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Verbic are all out, so they have no proper striker to carry a counter. That lets Switzerland push up, keep the ball and work away at a deep block until it gives. A 2-0 Switzerland win is the likeliest finish, and that is enough to land this. Two warnings, both fair. One of their last two meetings finished 0-0, and Slovenia have tied 7 of their last 14, so a 1-0 is live. Switzerland are without Granit Xhaka, Breel Embolo, Denis Zakaria and Ruben Vargas, which costs them some control and their main striker. We still back Switzerland to win this by 2 or more.